The Jacksonville Jaguars reached 10 wins for the first time since 2017, and the atmosphere at Duvall was great. Everything is going well for Liam Cohen’s side now, with Trevor Lawrence finding his form, the defense is killing people off and the whole organization is feeling confident.
Yes, Jaguars are absolutely 100% real. Or, they could be one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL and destined to be eliminated in the playoffs.
advertise
Welcome to the NFL in 2025, where nothing is certain — but even within it, it’s not at all clear what the Jaguars are. They are currently the AFC’s third seed, leading the AFC South region, and are destined to host the playoffs for the sixth time in franchise history. us should Jacksonville is now considered one of the elite teams in football, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.
No. 1: The Jaguars are 6-1 in their last seven games, but…
Entering the bye week, the Jaguars were 4-3, good enough for second in the conference but nothing to write home about. With losses to the Bengals (laughs), Seahawks and Rams, there’s a pretty clear pattern: beating mediocre teams but losing to good ones.
This bye was even more solid for Jacksonville. The team came back rejuvenated after the break, averaging over 30 points per game and doing enough defensively to win the game. But the devil is in the details. While Jacksonville’s offense is certainly impressive, their defense is… good. It’s nothing to write home about, and the roster of quarterbacks the Jaguars have faced since the bye has been pitiful.
advertise
Aside from Herbert and Brissett, this is one of the worst quarterback combinations anyone could possibly imagine. It was mediocre, sure, but he still averaged 19.5 points against Jacksonville. Davis Mills even managed to beat them, and Davis Mills shouldn’t beat anything in 2025.
Second: Trevor Lawrence holds it all together, but…
There’s no question that Lawrence has turned things around, culminating in a six-touchdown performance against the Jets on Sunday. Liam Cohen’s offense is starting to have an impact on him, and Jakobi Meyers, acquired at the trade deadline, is one of the best additions in the NFL this season. This adds more verticality to the Jaguars’ offense, which desperately needs Dee’s threat, and Lawrence has been executing.
The problem is that Lawrence had been very mediocre before the game against the Jets. That’s the equivalent of playing 60 minutes of garbage time football, resulting in some incredible data-stuffing.
advertise
Trevor Lawrence vs. Jets: 330 passing yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs
Trevor Lawrence’s averages in all other games this season: 221 yards, 1.4 TD, 0.84 INT
Without the Jets game, Lawrence is functionally equivalent to the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Flacco and Marcus Mariota. It really hasn’t been a great season, no matter how impressive a win over the Jets looks right now.
If you want to beat a team in tank mode, more power to you, but there’s little indication that teams can trust him to come out and win in the playoffs.
Third: The defense looks good, but…
Jacksonville did an incredible job in a defensive zone that stopped the team’s offense. The Jaguars rank first in the NFL in yards allowed and rushing attempts allowed. They are also a top-10 team in terms of yards allowed per attempt. Basically, the team knows they can’t run in Jacksonville, so they have to give up the run and look for offense elsewhere.
advertise
The problem is that the team excels against this defense in other areas. Jacksonville ranks 20th in passing yards allowed and 19th in passing touchdowns allowed, and opponents are able to score on 32.6 percent of their drives. Basically, this team lives or dies on defensive mistakes. The Jaguars have won zero games this season by more than three points but lost the turnover battle. That’s a bit worrisome when you consider that their quarterback has struggled this season.
Basically, what this means is that the Jaguars haven’t found themselves in a situation where they’re facing a top quarterback and can win without making a big mistake. This could be a sign that the defense was really good, or that they were very lucky.
If we were really honest, what would we think of this team?
It’s been a weird NFL season and no one is very convincing, especially in the AFC. While the NFC has some reliability against the Rams and Seahawks, the AFC standings is largely a factor in why other teams fall behind — like the Chiefs and the entire AFC North.
advertise
This has led to a situation where many construction teams around the NFL are able to stretch well beyond their schedules. It’s hard to imagine a team like New England, Chicago or Jacksonville contending for a title so quickly with a new coach in any other season but 2025. However, the playoffs are the limiting factor. When a team makes the playoffs, we see what they are actually made of. Instead of having Riley Leonard or Brady Cooks preying on turnovers in the playoffs, it will be Trevor Lawrence who can beat the Broncos defense or stop the likes of Josh Allen.
This leaves us in a complicated situation, where the Jaguars are neither a liar nor real. Instead, they were just able to get through an odd season without much resistance. For a team with a history of shooting itself in the foot, that’s an achievement in itself, and future growth is there – but just this The season, well, how long it lasts is still a luck factor.
Luck will always run out, no matter how good you think you are. Enjoy the journey while it continues.