It was almost exactly this time 20 years ago that George W. Bush’s approval ratings began to hit rock bottom. As Bush’s approval ratings in most polls dipped into the 30s for the first time in late winter and early spring, the culprit was obvious: the Iraq war.
In 2026, with the election of President Donald Trump, history may repeat itself. Just replace Iraq with Iran.
Three new polls released Tuesday put Trump’s approval rating in the mid-30s: 36% In a Reuters-Ipsos poll, 35% Gained a “numbers edge” in the Verasight poll and 33 percent in the AP-NORC poll. They focused on an NBC News poll over the weekend that showed Trump’s approval rating at a new low. 37%.
Over the past month, eight of nine quality polls tracked by CNN put Trump in his 30s.
The only exception is a Fox News poll that had Trump’s approval rating at 41%, but even that was his lowest approval rating since 2017.
Let’s put these numbers into context.
Trump’s disapproval hits new high
Not all polls show Trump reaching new heights.
Some polls show his approval ratings dropped slightly during his first year in office in 2017 or after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
But in the CNN poll (an average of the above-mentioned quality surveys), Trump’s 62% average disapproval rating is higher than shown in any past poll.
The highest disapproval ratings for Trump in individual polls in 2017 were as follows: 63% in the Pew Research Center poll, 61% in the Quinnipiac University poll, and 60% in the Reuters-Ipsos poll. After January 6, his approval rating reached 62% in the CNN poll, 61% in the Quinnipiac poll, and 60% in the Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Trump is now averaging such numbers across all polls, showing that more Americans than ever are against Trump.
trend lines consistent
President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media aboard Air Force One on April 17. – Evan Vucci/Reuters
Perhaps even more troubling for Trump is that the trend line for his second term is remarkably consistent— Continuous decline.
While Trump may be widely viewed as being deeply unpopular during his first term as president, he has recovered from his 2017 lows to spend much of his presidency with an approval rating in the mid-40s, which is somewhat normal for a president today. That includes before the 2018 midterm elections and during the 2020 re-election campaign.
Trump’s approval ratings during his first term were largely flat.
But during his second term, those numbers trended slowly but steadily downward.
This trend predates the Iran War. But the war also appears to have solidified some of Trump’s primary responsibilities, causing him to lose the support of those who had not abandoned him before.
Economic low
A big reason for this appears to be his views on his handling of the economy, which the Iran war and accompanying rising gas prices have pushed to new lows.
That is to say:
Inflation has long been Trump’s most serious problem, and voters often say he ignores concerns about rising costs. But a growing number of polls show it faces some competition in the Iran war.
An NBC poll shows that two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance on the Iran war, just shy of the 68% who disapprove of his handling of inflation.
An earlier CNN poll showed 67% disapproved of the way Trump was handling Iran, compared with 69% who disapproved of the economy and 72% who disapproved of inflation.
he’s entering bush territory
It’s certainly possible that the trend line could change, and a resolution of the Iran war could help Trump.
But if the president’s approval ratings stabilize in the mid-30s, he’ll be in some pretty rare company. In recent decades, this land has been primarily inhabited by one man: George W. Bush.
Twenty years ago, when Bush entered his thirties, he was the first president since Jimmy Carter to remain in his thirties, according to Gallup data. Joe Biden, like Bush, spent a significant amount of time in his 30s, but generally in his 30s.
These days, it’s not uncommon for a president to be unpopular. In fact, this is the norm.
But Trump is slipping into some very unusual and dangerous political territory.
This story has been updated with an additional poll.
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