Analysts are racing to predict how far Bitcoin can go A fall is likely, with the target price falling further each day. The latest addition is Stifel, a premier full-service financial services firm headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Analysts at the 136-year-old company predict that Bitcoin prices could fall to $38,000.
“Bitcoin super-shorts have fallen -41% from highs, following a linear trend that suggests potential lows around $38,000,” the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
They are looking at the straight line drawn from the lows of every major Bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin fell 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022. A line connecting these market bottoms slopes upward toward $38,000, the potential low for the current slide.
Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October and has since fallen to nearly $70,000, levels last touched in November 2024.
Benjamin Bitcoin Curio Case
Stifel analysts used an analogy from the movie “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” to explain the bearish scenario.
In this film and the F. Scott Fitzgerald story on which it is based, Patton ages as everyone else does. That’s what happens with Bitcoin: As the dollar weakens from regular money printing, a fixed supply cap of 21 million Bitcoins makes it stronger — or younger, in analysts’ words.
Now it’s wearing away, like a child version of Button who looks 10 but acts 80 and can only play piano for retirees.
In the past, Bitcoin has risen as global cash increased and the U.S. dollar weakened, but since 2025, this relationship has reversed. Now it’s falling with the dollar. The U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 1% this year, continuing last year’s nearly 10% decline.
“Before 2025, when the US dollar fell and the global M2 money supply (converted to US dollars) rose, Bitcoin would rise and thus ‘lag’ relative to fiat currencies, but since 2025 this relationship has reversed,” the analysts said.
Bitcoin follows Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and growth stocks, which have surged on the Fed’s dovish stance and plunged on the hawkish stance, complicating its behavior. Although the Fed cut interest rates at its last three meetings in 2025, the tone was mostly hawkish, downplaying faster rate cuts in the future.
Analysts said the tone was ominous, especially as technology companies ramp up borrowing and raise borrowing costs. This could lead to a financial squeeze, hit stock valuations and add to the pain in the Bitcoin market.
