I have been involved full-time in commodities and financial markets for over 40 years. During that time, I’ve seen a lot of eye-catching and very unexpected price action. The most notable and unexpected market price move was the drop in Nymex crude oil futures to negative $40.32 per barrel in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. In another shocker, lumber futures prices surged to record highs in May 2021, also due to high demand during the pandemic. I also thought about cocoa futures. For 40 years, the cocoa market traded between $700 and $3,800 per ton until it soared to $12,931 in December 2024. Pork belly futures (now delisted), orange juice futures and natural gas futures also saw huge gains, hitting previously seemingly unimaginable highs.
Silver’s (SIH26) recent price explosion ranks among the top five most striking and unexpected market developments in my long career in commodities. In August 2025, silver futures were trading at $36 an ounce. By November, the price reached the $50 mark, setting an all-time high. Last fall, I wrote that silver’s ability to stay above $50 for a few weeks would be key to the metal’s long-term price trajectory. I doubt this will happen, in fact, silver futures prices fell to a low of $45.51 in late October (after hitting an all-time high of $53.765 in mid-October). In fact, at the end of October, silver bulls appeared to have exhausted their energy after an extraordinary bull run.
Many long-term metals market observers, myself included, believed at the end of November that the major bull market in silver was over. Little did I know at the time, the silver market would simply pause to take a breath before launching into a new, more powerful rocket thrust that would double the price in just over two months. As the old saying goes: “You can’t make this stuff up!”
When a market like silver goes parabolic, most logical and technical indicators disappear.
Safe-haven demand is the main driver behind silver and gold prices rising to record highs. U.S. President Donald Trump’s overthrow of Venezuela’s president, his declaration that the U.S. needs to own Greenland for national security purposes, and his suggestion that Iranian citizens continue to protest and take over Iranian institutions are the main drivers for traders and investors to continue holding gold and silver. This is exactly what has happened over the past month. Markets are anxiously wondering where and where the next shoe in U.S. foreign policy will land.
