As we prepare to begin the Fantasy Football Playoffs, let’s jot down some strategy tips. Much of this will be a recap and stuff we’ve written and discussed over the past few years. Some of these are specific to December; other tips are more general. As usual, many of these tips are common sense – and common sense is the most important club to have in your bag.
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It all comes down to good decisions. This may be what has led you to this point, and the key to giving yourself the best chance in the coming weeks. Keep making those good decisions, friends.
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Here’s what you need to know and consider before the fantasy football playoffs begin.
December Fantasy Lineup Lineup Changes
The bye week is long gone and forgotten. Depth is no longer as important as it once was. If you have a series of injuries in September, you pick yourself up and make the best of it. If the wrong person gets hurt during this time of year, you could lose. That’s the way it is.
I’m willing to consider the types of players now that I wouldn’t care about in August or September. Backup running backs don’t matter to me at the start of the season — that’s when I’m trying to hit home runs and field a theoretically superior team — but insurance may make sense this time of year. Typically this is a running back thing, but even a position you don’t normally play insurance is worth a look. Maybe manager CeeDee Lamb will look at Ryan Flournoy, or maybe manager Mark Andrews will target Isaiah Likely. This is also a critical time to consider multiple fantasy defenses. This is because of the next point.
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Looking to the future is crucial
I’m a firm believer that fantasy football is best played with a microscope rather than a telescope – allowing us to focus on what’s in front of us rather than fooling ourselves with our ability to predict the future months in advance. Strength of summer schedule? I’ve always thought this was a silly thing to do; low-end information is sometimes pushed into the wrong proportion of importance.
But at the end of the season, I’ll start looking to the future. We have a better sense of what good games and bad games look like. Heck, maybe you said goodbye in Week 15 – in the sense that you start planning Weeks 16 and 17 now, indifferent to what happens this week.
I favor at least two fantasy defenses this time of year because fantasy defenses, while maddeningly inconsistent at times, depend heavily on matchups and opponents. You always want to play a D/ST that’s the favorite in the game, and it’s not easy to lock down a defensive team that’s going to have a raw matchup in 2-3 weeks. Of course, when this week finally rolls around, the league’s fluidity will begin to show and some games will gain or lose luster. But I’m happy to make some guesses now. (There are some terrible offenses out there, let’s pick a few!)
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Get to know your FAAB community
Free agent bidding is always a league-related event, but this time of year, the task at hand becomes more specific, fewer teams are still eligible to bid (or participate in the league), and not all teams have adequate resources. When I make early bids, I think loosely about the demand and leverage situation in the rest of the room. But at this time of year, I make sure I know exactly What other teams need and what they can and cannot do.
With a smaller roster to worry about, there’s no reason to ignore narrow backgrounds. Bidding in September was looser and less precise, now it’s more specific (and predictable).
Don’t Worry About Meditation in Week 17
Fantasy football is a better game because Week 18 is generally ignored in head-to-head leagues (although I wouldn’t mind continuing Week 18 in a hybrid format). Many NFL teams heading into the playoffs, with little to play in the final week, view this game as a glorified exhibition game.
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But sometimes I hear fantasy managers getting antsy during Week 17 games, worried that a winning team might lose its penultimate game. While this is theoretically possible, and has occasionally gone wrong historically, it is very rare. Most teams realize that going into shutdown mode a full three weeks before the playoff schedule is foolish. From where we sit today, I fully expect all teams to remain motivated heading into Week 17.
Consider everything you respect, but make your own decision
You are the CEO, the general manager, the marketing director. You win, you get the spoils. I don’t blame you for seeking information and other opinions – I would do the same – but ultimately, you want to be responsible for your choices. You know your league better than we do.
There are no shortcuts or golden tickets, although we sometimes want to believe these things. If the answer were easy, this would be a pretty boring game. There is no analyst worthy of your blind devotion, and no one so dense as to deserve automatic fading (which is just as valuable as the omniscient analyst, but neither exists). Consider the sound opinions you would normally seek, but condense everything into your own sound decision-making process.
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Don’t play for the friendliest loss
This article is not for everyone, as I know many managers who would like to follow simple rules of thumb when struggling with the paradox of choice. “Always start with your stars” has always struck me as a crutch rather than an answer to any problem – because the definition of a star is so fluid. Is Justin Jefferson still a star? Look what Houston’s defense did against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce last week. What about injured stars, or players coming back from multiple games? Do they live up to the outdated “start your star” adage?
Most professional sports coaches still run by the book (although that is starting to change), and they often dilute expected value in the process. It’s understandable that they’re being pushed in this direction – they need to keep their jobs, be accountable to the media and the public, and stay in good graces in the dressing room. Few policymakers can do unorthodox things without taking significant risks.
But fantasy managers don’t have that invisible hand guiding us. We don’t need to please the owners, or win over the media, or appease the players. We just want the best chance to win.
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I don’t select my starting lineup based on brand value, what I paid in August, or how I looked at the depth chart a month ago. I will try to make all the key decisions with the single goal of scoring the most points. I don’t care which potential losing situation causes the least damage (which is why some people have a hard time benching a big-name player; it’s human nature to try to cushion the blow before it comes). Never forget, this is a game about numbers, not a game about names.
Think like a DFS player
Remember, your matchups and starting lineups are ever-changing entities, both before and during the game. If you find yourself going from clear favorite to clear underdog after a few results, it might make sense to embrace volatility in the back half of the slate. Optimal decision-making is a dynamic process; like a card counter at a blackjack table, variables are constantly changing. Don’t throw common sense out the window as the game progresses, but at least consider how the situation changes and whether you need to adopt a different strategy as your odds of winning increase or decrease.
A key tip related to this is – understand the purpose of your flex points. If you’re going to play anyone early in the game, make sure they occupy a static position (RB, WR, etc.) and not a flex position.
Quick click
The article can be an ongoing entity; eventually we have to hit publish. Some other quick thoughts: Weather is worth considering, but as a low-end priority; generally speaking, high winds are the only thing to be proactive about. …it would be nice if you could get an indoor or warm weather kicker, although mostly I just want a kicker that is tied to a team that is expected to win. …The trick with fantasy football is the balance of your season over the long term. Look at the playoffs for what they are, a championship game. We are all troubled by differences sometimes. …take as much time as possible before making a decision. Walking days are meant to gather information. …ensure regular review of league transactions, especially the reduction of players. It’s not uncommon for playoff teams to release a useful player because they have an immediate need and can’t wait for the benefits later. This is where you might want to step in.
I’m sure I’m missing some tips that stand out on your clipboard. Follow me on social media and share your thoughts.
