Billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX will see a vehicle reach the moon earlier and under different circumstances than the company imagined.
The moon has been a major interest for SpaceX and NASA, with the two entities working with Musk’s company to develop lunar landers for astronauts to land on the lunar surface. Musk also wants SpaceX to take the lead in developing lunar cities.
But SpaceX’s Starship won’t be the company’s first rocket to reach the moon.
Instead, part of a Falcon 9 rocket is on a collision course with the moon after more than a year in orbit high above Earth. At least, that’s the conclusion of an independent astronomer, who used orbit-tracking software to determine the approximate date, location and speed of the hardware when it hit our celestial neighbor.
Ironically, the Falcon 9 launch vehicle in question is the same one used in January 2025 to propel U.S. commercial lunar landers on a more controlled journey to the lunar surface.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Falcon 9 rocket and why it hit the moon.
Astronomers predict Falcon 9 debris will fall into the moon
Part of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket has been orbiting high above Earth since January 2025, taking 26 days to complete one orbit around the Earth.
But on August 5, the upper stage of the launch vehicle is expected to hit the near side of the moon, which always faces the Earth.
The prediction comes from astronomer Bill Gray, who wrote the widely used Pluto Project software to track near-Earth objects such as asteroids, comets and man-made spacecraft. Gray’s analysis is based on ground-based observations from the telescope and surveys of upper-level orbits.
Since the moon has no atmosphere, this particular upper layer would not have burned up before impacting the moon, and Gray predicted the impact would occur at 2:44 AM. According to Gray’s analysis, the object, designated 2025-010D, will be traveling at about 2.43 kilometers per second, or 5,400 miles per hour, when it hits the moon.
What is the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket?
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was launched, carrying 29 Starlink broadband satellites into low Earth orbit. The rocket blasted off from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 2:06 p.m. on Friday, May 1.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is the most active rocket in the world.
The two-stage rocket stands 230 feet tall and is classified as a medium-sized launch vehicle, capable of carrying about 50,000 pounds of cargo into orbit.
SpaceX has launched hundreds of Falcon 9 rockets from Florida’s Space Coast and California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base to carry its Starlink broadband internet satellites into low-Earth orbit. Falcon 9 is also the only American-made rocket to carry astronauts to the International Space Station aboard the SpaceX Dragon capsule.
The Falcon 9’s 45-foot upper stage is designed to orbit after separation from the lower stage, which provides the initial burst of thrust as it lifts off. The lower stage of a SpaceX rocket, also known as a booster, eventually returns to Earth for a controlled landing and is recovered and reused for future launches.
Does Elon Musk own SpaceX? What you need to know about Rocket Corporation
SpaceX is a commercial aerospace company founded in 2002 by Musk, the world’s richest man.
SpaceX, the cornerstone of Musk’s business empire, has benefited from billions of dollars in government contracts to provide launch services for classified satellites and other payloads using its Falcon 9 and more powerful Falcon Heavy rockets.
SpaceX is also developing its large Starship rocket at its Starbase headquarters in South Texas. Starship is considered the world’s largest rocket and could become the centerpiece of SpaceX and NASA’s ambitions to send humans to the moon and Mars.
Musk recently merged SpaceX with his xAI company, which is perhaps best known for developing the Grok AI chatbot, which started as a feature on Musk’s social media platform X. The move comes as SpaceX prepares for a highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is widely seen as having the ability to become one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Falcon 9 to launch lunar lander in 2025
The Falcon 9 upper stage that is about to crash into the moon is believed to be part of the same rocket that launched from Florida in January 2025 carrying an unmanned lunar lander.
That lunar lander? Texas-based aerospace company Firefly Aerospace’s next-generation Blue Ghost vehicle will return to the moon in 2026, while NASA prepares to return humans to the lunar surface in 2028 under its Artemis program.
Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander captured a shadow of the lunar surface after successfully landing near a volcanic feature on the moon called Mons Latreille on March 2, 2025
On January 15, 2025, the “Blue Ghost” lunar lander arrived in Earth orbit aboard a Falcon 9 rocket that lifted off from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center near Cape Canaveral.
In March 2025, Blue Ghost became the second commercial U.S. spacecraft to land on the lunar surface as part of its $101.5 million mission to deploy 10 scientific instruments for NASA to test the lunar environment. The technology is used for one full lunar day, which is equivalent to approximately 14 Earth days.
While the payload fairing that protected the lander before deployment reentered the Earth’s atmosphere, the upper stage continued to orbit the Earth without reentry and burning, Gray wrote.
Can you see the moon impact? Is it dangerous
Even with Earth-based telescopes, skywatchers are unlikely to see Falcon 9’s upper stage crash into the moon. That’s because, as Gray explains, the effect is too weak to be observed.
Gray wrote on his website that the collision “posed no danger to anyone” and would not have significantly altered or damaged the lunar surface. But he added: “It does highlight the carelessness with which leftover space hardware (space junk) is disposed of.”
Eric Lagatta is Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Please contact him at elagatta@usatodayco.com
This article originally appeared in USA TODAY: SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket set to crash into Earth-facing side of moon
