For Detroit fans looking for a pick-me-up, one Lions statistic suggests a major bounce-back could be coming in 2026.
Despite entering the 2025 season as one of the Super Bowl favorites, the Lions have fallen to 8-8 and been eliminated from the playoffs heading into their Week 18 finale against the Chicago Bears.
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As the old football adage goes, “Things are never as bad as they seem, and they are never as good as they seem.” For all the Detroit skeptics out there, FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz offered some optimism for next season.
According to Schatz, the Lions’ 2025 DVOA (defense-adjusted value on average) ranks second all-time among teams that went 8-8 from 1978 to 2025.
Three of the 8-8 teams with the best DVOA record during this period made it to the next season’s Super Bowl. Those three teams include the 2007 New York Giants, who denied New England perfection by winning 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII. It also includes the 2009 New Orleans Saints, who defeated the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl 44.
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The San Diego Chargers also advanced to the Super Bowl in 1994, but they lost to the San Francisco 49ers 49-26.
So, what exactly is DVOA?
DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing each game’s success to the league average based on situation and opponent.
It records every game during the NFL season and compares each game to a league average baseline, depending on the situation. DVOA measures not just yards, but yards on first down.
For example, 5 yards on holes 3 and 4 are worth much more than 5 yards on holes 1 and 10 than 5 yards on holes 3 and 12. Performance will also be adjusted based on the quality of your opponents. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10% better than the average team.
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Why should you care?
Simply put, efficiency metrics really like this Lions team compared to the rest of the league, regardless of its record. The Lions’ 2025 DVOA ranks third in the NFL, behind only the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
Some other numbers, such as point differential, suggest the Lions aren’t as bad as their record says. Detroit’s net rating is +65, ninth-best in the NFL. The eight teams ahead of the Lions in points differential will all make the playoffs in 2025.
This is a good example of why the Lions will be a popular bounce-back candidate in the 2026 offseason. With good health, some hot prospects in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft, and some good free agent transfers, the Lions could actually climb back to the top of the NFC North and be a contender in 2026.
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Now, any NFL history that shows it can be done, and from where the Lions are currently to having done it next season, is a welcome sight in the Motor City.
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This article originally appeared on Lions Wire: One Lions stats point to major rebound in 2026 season
