XRP price has failed to track the weekly gains of Bitcoin and Ethereum and is still trading in a tight range since mid-November.
At the same time, a bullish on-chain signal has reached a three-month high, which is usually a strong preparation for a recovery. The price of XRP, however, has barely changed. Let’s understand why.
The story begins with the coins being spent. Tokens Spent, which measures how many older XRP tokens are moved each day, has plummeted from 186.36 million XRP on November 15 to 16.32 million XRP now. This was a significant drop of 91% and the lowest level in three months.
When older supply stops flowing, selling pressure drops sharply. This is why dormancy increases when fewer coins are spent and is now at its highest level in three months. Under normal market conditions, this shift alone could support XRP price strength.
Want more token insights like this? Subscribe to editor Harsh Notariya’s daily encrypted newsletter here.
But XRP price is yet to react as belief groups are moving in the opposite direction.
HODL Waves tracks the supply held by each age group, showing a clear distribution of older holders over the past month. Supply in the 6-12 month group has dropped from 26.18% to 21.65%. The 1-2 year group dropped from 9.34% to 8.61%. Even the 2-3 years group dropped from 14.58% to 14.12%.
These groups form the backbone of trend strength because they control supply that rarely moves. When they reduce share, the upside attempt loses momentum.
This also explains why even the recent whale purchases (which we have covered before) were not enough to lift the XRP price. Whale exposure has increased, but continued outflows from older holders still overwhelm this demand. Dormancy alone cannot drive a breakthrough until long-term supply stops leaving these groups.
The chart reflects the same tug-of-war. Since November 15, XRP price has been hovering between $2.28 and $1.81, with no single-day close above $2.28. This remains a critical boundary that must be crossed to build momentum. If it successfully breaks through $2.28, the next target levels will be $2.56 and $2.69, areas where XRP has previously reacted strongly.
However, a close below $1.98 would weaken the current structure and increase the chances of a return to $1.81.
For now, the message is clear. Dormancy is at a three-month high while tokens spent are at a three-month low, but long-term holders are still allocating. Until these belief groups stabilize and daily candles close above $2.28, XRP price will remain within its range.
Read original story A bullish XRP indicator hits 3-month high — so why can’t price break out? Author: Ananda Banerjee from beincrypto.com