Expectations for U.S. monetary policy are changing, but Bitcoin He seemed increasingly indifferent. The cryptocurrency has crossed the $80,000 mark, suggesting that interest rate-related macro resistance may be losing its grip on price action.
Now, a growing number of major brokerages expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady this year, a significant change from expectations for at least two previous rate cuts. Barclays joined peers on Monday in canceling its previous forecast for a rate cut, pointing to persistently high energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran as an inflationary development. Other global firms, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., have similarly pushed back against expectations of easing policy.
Under normal circumstances, the prospect of higher interest rates in the longer term would put pressure on risk assets. Despite this, Bitcoin continues to rise. Some analysts believe that despite rising inflation concerns, the asset is increasingly viewed as an inflation hedge, supported by continued inflows into spot ETFs. Others remain skeptical, attributing the rise more to a strengthening stock market than any structural shift in cryptocurrency demand.
For now, momentum seems to be in favor of the bulls.
“From a market structure perspective, we see traders keeping a close eye on resistance at $81,500, while the CME futures gap around $84,000 remains a key area for potential upside. These technical levels, combined with macro developments, are likely to guide near-term price action,” said Ashish Singhal, co-founder of FIU-registered CoinSwitch exchange.
Technical indicators reinforce this view. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), often seen as the dividing line between long-term bearish and bullish trends, is located near $83,430. Therefore, a decisive break above this level could strengthen the case for further gains.
The broader market is also showing signs of selective strength. Bitcoin rose about 2% to around $80,700, accompanied by sharp swings in some altcoins. Toncoin (TON) surged around 35%, while MORPHO and PENGU gained 11% and 9% respectively. On the weaker side, Dash is down slightly. Larger coins such as Ethereum, XRP and Solana have largely followed Bitcoin’s modest gains.
Meanwhile, market sentiment is at a critical juncture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has climbed to 50, right at the midpoint of its range, a level last seen in mid-January.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said: “The market is approaching an important turning point. Market sentiment has only briefly surged to higher levels since October last year, but this provides an excellent opportunity for bears to sell at higher prices.” Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market. For a complete list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
what is trend
Brent crude oil prices hold near $114 a barrel as tensions rise in Middle East (Reuters): Brent crude oil futures fell 93 cents, or 0.8%, to $113.51 a barrel after rising 5.8% on Monday. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.16, or 2%, to $104.26, after rising 4.4% in the previous session.
Maersk said the ship passed through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection (CNBC): Maersk said one of its merchant ships, which has been stranded at sea since the outbreak of war on February 28, successfully passed through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection.
‘A deal is a deal’: Von der Leyen hits back at Trump’s latest tariff threat (European News): Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would be “prepared for every scenario” if Donald Trump unilaterally increased tariffs on EU-made cars.
China defies Iranian oil blacklist, steps up U.S. sanctions (Wall Street Journal): China is defying U.S. sanctions and stepping up U.S. sanctions over Iranian oil ahead of President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing next week.
today’s signal
After a sharp sell-off to nearly $60,000 earlier this year, Bitcoin has steadily recovered above $80,000 in a well-defined, textbook ascending channel characterized by a consistent pattern of rising lows and rising highs.
Price is currently approaching the upper limit of the channel, a level that could serve as short-term resistance and the rally could stall or pull back.
A decisive break above the cap could trigger stronger momentum and a potential speculative frenzy towards $100,000. However, repeated rejections at this level could send the price back to $70,000 or lower.
In short, bulls are now in control with price approaching a key technical test.
