NFL free agency: From Matthew Stafford to Fernando Mendoza, early winners and losers

Fernando Mendoza, in part: Full disclosure, the Indiana quarterback and presumptive first overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft earned his spot on the losers list first. More on that in a minute. But by Monday afternoon, he warranted a winning recognition too as the Las Vegas Raiders signed center Tyler Linderbaum to a record-breaking contract worth $27 million per year with $60 million guaranteed, per multiple reports. Protecting quarterbacks in the NFL is one of the most integral keys to ensuring a quarterback grows rather than falters. As a high-caliber, veteran center, Linderbaum doesn’t only guard against pocket-collapsing defensive tackles. He’ll also help Mendoza transition from college playbooks to pro protection schemes. He can help cover Mendoza’s physical and mental blindspots as he develops. The Raiders had to bid high for Linderbaum, and Mendoza should celebrate.

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The Broncos’ salary cap department: When the Denver Broncos decided to shoulder an $85 million dead cap hit for Russell Wilson two years ago, they set the unenviable record for the largest dead cap hit in NFL history. Thanks to the Miami Dolphins, the Broncos will soon no longer hold that distinction. The Dolphins are expected to release quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, absorbing a $99.2 million dead cap hit to do so. Adding insult to injury: The Dolphins are making this move during a year of a weak rookie quarterback class. So while the Broncos were able to balance Bo Nix’s rookie salary against Wilson’s dead cap hit, the Dolphins will be paying Malik Willis more than $20 million a year on a three-year deal worth up to $67.5 million with $45 million guaranteed. Even with the chance to spread out both quarterbacks’ cap hits over multiple years, the Dolphins will still be investing heavily in one room while needing to bolster several others.

Matthew Stafford’s chance at another ring: When Matthew Stafford accepted his MVP award on stage with his four daughters last month, the now 38-year-old confirmed he’ll return for another run with the Los Angeles Rams. The Seahawks edged the Rams in the NFC championship game by 4 points, despite Stafford’s 374-yard, three-touchdown performance. That’s because Seattle was able to pick apart the Rams’ weakness: their secondary, particularly their cornerbacks. Now, Los Angeles is pivoting from its strategy to hope a strong defensive front will elevate a shaky secondary. The Rams instead traded for Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie and signed Chiefs cornerback Jaylen Watson to add talented players with playoff experience. Neither came cheap. As long as Stafford stays healthy, that should position the Rams right back in the strongest group of contenders ahead of the 2026 season.

Losers

Fernando Mendoza, in part: We stand by our belief that the Linderbaum signing was one of the most important moves the Raiders could make to help Mendoza develop if and when they draft him first overall. But high-ranking personnel executives across the league often say that the best schematic recipe for young quarterbacks isn’t to give them top-tier weapons at wideout; rather, it’s to give them a strong defense and run game to take the pressure off the quarterback that shootouts are needed to win. So while the Raiders’ haul of two first-round draft picks for Maxx Crosby made sense with their team life cycle and could pay dividends in the medium- and long-term, Crosby’s move to the Baltimore Ravens will not help Mendoza’s early career. Facing the Raiders looks easier this week than it did last. “Maxx was [the] most disruptive player I’ve had to gameplan against since Aaron Donald,” one offensive coach told Yahoo Sports. “Every play. Every down. Game wrecker.” In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson is celebrating.

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Rebuilding teams in search of veteran QBs: Stick with us here, but Malik Willis and Sam Darnold are among quarterbacks who have created a low-key trend. The pattern: Quarterbacks looking for their footing should go to winning teams with strong play-callers, not only because of the development they’ll receive there but also because of the staff connections that will bolster their future market. While Darnold had a larger body of work when he hit free agency last year, the Seahawks’ willingness to invest in him still came in large part because of then-offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s ability to vouch for Darnold from their overlapping year in San Francisco. Signing with the Dolphins, Willis is experiencing something similar: The decision-makers who saw him developing behind the scenes and evolving in practice were most willing to pay him. Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley practiced against Willis last year while Hafley was Green Bay defensive coordinator and now-Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan was in Green Bay’s front office. That gave Willis a payday when a shifting market materialized less competitively for his services than initially warranted. QBs on the market this year should take note: Winning staffs are more likely to produce the next wave of decision-makers.

Howie Roseman’s asking price, so far***: The Philadelphia Eagles’ interest in shopping receiver A.J. Brown is no secret. But general manager Howie Roseman’s asking price for his wideout appears too steep at this step. Roseman wants a first- and a second-round pick, per multiple reports, which has not materialized as receivers including Moore and Pierce settle into their 2026 homes. It’s possible that Roseman’s asking price could become more palatable as the week goes on and the receiver supply dwindles. The New England Patriots still seem to make the most sense as a trade partner: Brown played for Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel in Tennessee; the Patriots released Stefon Diggs, creating a hole in their receiver room; and the Patriots’ first-round pick would be at spot No. 31… which could make that part of the package more palatable. This conversation is far from over, warranting the asterisks here. But if the Eagles and Roseman wanted it settled early in order to make subsequent moves accordingly, their bet on early bidders lost.

Jets’ chance to continue making history: The New York Jets defense managing to secure zero interceptions in 2025 will remain hilarious to everyone except the Jets and some of their fan base. Prior to that, no team in the NFL had recorded fewer than two interceptions dating back to the Jets’ establishment as a team in 1960. Extending that streak to two years would also be funny, but the Jets’ free agency moves suggest they’ll instead begin rebuilding a defense from which they willingly dealt Gardner and Quinnen Williams. New upgrades include edge rusher Joseph Ossai, linebacker Demario Davis and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. With the bevy of draft capital from recent trades, expect the Jets also to add strong young defensive talent in April — beginning with the second overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers’ market: Aaron Rodgers said last week on “The Pat McAfee Show” that he did not have a contract offer on the table, from his most recent team the Pittsburgh Steelers nor anyone. The four-time MVP’s market has not gotten smoother in the last week, with a sudden influx of not just available but also extremely cost-effective veteran quarterbacks. Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith are all getting paid to not play for their former teams — making them attractive options for the veteran minimum cost of $1.3 million. Rodgers’ arm still flashed during the 2025 season, he wasn’t an in-season distraction, and his ability to diagnose defenses in real time is arguably the best in the game at the position right now. But will a suitor whom Rodgers wants also want him? The Steelers and Minnesota Vikings remain the most likely to appeal to him.

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Right-handed QB3s interested in Atlanta: With the Atlanta Falcons on track to sign Tagovailoa, the Falcons will now have left-handed quarterbacks at each of their top two spots on the depth chart. Whoever joins Michael Penix Jr. and Tagovailoa should recognize that practices, and offensive installations, will be geared toward southpaws. This might sound silly, but protections and formations are often flipped for left-handed quarterbacks and thus coached accordingly. If teammates are used to running plays that way, a right-handed quarterback may have more difficulty getting on-field familiarity from players to the side favoring his dominant hand. And while third-string quarterbacks may seem like an obscure position to care about in March, both Penix and Tagovailoa have significant injury histories (torn knee tendons, concussions, respectively) that could thrust a third quarterback into action.