If you’re looking for real NFL Conference Championship betting predictions on moneylines, over/unders and point spreads, you’ve come to the right place.
FTN’s NFL Simulation Model runs 10,000 simulations of every conference championship game, predicting win probability, moneyline edge and upset likelihood so you know where the real value is.
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Next, let’s take a deeper look at this week’s games and see what the FTN betting model is predicting.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Best Advantages: Broncos +4.5
The Patriots travel to Denver as heavy favorites in this game, largely due to the quarterback position. After leading the Broncos to a victory over the Bills, Bo Nix and the Denver Nuggets received devastating news as Nix would require ankle surgery, ending his season abruptly and unexpectedly.
If the Broncos want to pull off an upset this week and make it to the Super Bowl, their defense is going to have to get the ball rolling. Denver has been one of the league’s most dominant defensive teams, and it shows in the numbers this season. The Broncos ranked fifth in defensive DVOA, were solid against both the pass and the run, and were good at generating pressure. They rank second in pressure rate and lead the NFL with 68 sacks as a team.
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Drake Maye ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA due to pressure during the regular season, but that success didn’t carry over to the postseason. Through two playoff games, Meyer ranks last among playoff quarterbacks in EPA per dropback under pressure.
In addition to generating pressure, the Denver Nuggets also have the highest defensive coverage in the NFL. Meyer excelled against man-to-man coverage during the regular season, leading the league with 9.0 yards per attempt and ranking third in EPA per dropback. However, through two postseason games, he averaged just 5.2 yards per carry in man-to-man coverage, and his 31.6% success rate in man-to-man coverage ranked last among quarterbacks with at least two playoff starts. If Meyer performs at his regular season level, the Patriots will be able to beat Denver’s strong defense, but he will need to improve his performance in the playoffs.
Shooting the other side of the ball is more difficult. Jarrett Stidham replaced the Knicks in the starting lineup, having not started since 2023. While he wasn’t bad in those games, they came in the final two weeks of the regular season when Denver was already eliminated.
The Patriots weren’t a strong defensive team in the regular season, but they were dominant through two weeks in the playoffs. The most likely outcome is that New England wins the battle on that side of the ball, leaving the Broncos defense to keep the game close.
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We think this is a competitive game and while the Patriots are the more likely team to win, we want to keep the margin below a field goal.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Best Advantages: Rams +2.5
IMHO, this is the game of the week. The Rams and Seahawks had two of the best regular seasons in the league, per DVOA, and the gap between them and other teams is huge. Seattle finished with a 41.3% DVOA, Los Angeles was close behind at 39.9%, and the second-place team, the Detroit Lions, scored just 21.5%. The winner of this game will be the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
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The Rams and Seahawks split their two regular-season games, with both games coming down to the wire. In Game 1, Sam Darnold threw 4 interceptions, but he bounced back in Week 16 and led the team to a comeback win. Still, Darnold has thrown six interceptions in two games against the Rams this season, and ball security will be crucial if Seattle wants to advance. Turnovers weren’t an issue for Darnold last week, but the Rams present a much tougher challenge than the 49ers did. Los Angeles has one of the league’s most opportunistic pass defenses, ranking fourth in passing DVOA despite ranking 13th in passing yards. That production was driven by pressure and gains: The Rams intercepted 16 passes, generated pressure in the top 10 and finished with the seventh-most sacks in the NFL. If Los Angeles can speed up Darnold and force him into turnovers, they have a clear path to turning the game around.
The other side of the ball is equally fascinating. Seattle’s defense is historically good this season, leading the league in defensive DVOA with an almost unfathomable weighted score of -28.5%. They overwhelm nearly every offense they face, and few quarterbacks have sustained success. In a single game against Seattle this season, only five quarterbacks have generated positive EPA per dropback, and only two quarterbacks have surpassed the 0.05 mark. One of them is Baker Mayfield. The other is Matthew Stafford.
Stafford had a strong performance against the Seahawks, throwing for five touchdowns and no interceptions in two games while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. For context, Seattle is allowing opposing quarterbacks an average of just 6.0 yards per attempt this season. The central question in this game is whether Stafford has truly cracked the code on this defense, or if Seattle has another adjustment waiting to shut down the Rams offense.
