A brand new account at crypto prediction market provider Polymarket invested $40,000 in a bet that the United States would attack Iran by the end of January 14.
The Pentagon is currently weighing how to attack Iran, which is closing its airspace to all commercial traffic, and preparing for possible military intervention in the coming hours or days.
Punters at Polymarket believe a potential strike will happen later rather than sooner, with the consensus betting it will happen by the end of this month or June 30 at the latest. An NBC article late Wednesday suggested a strike might not be imminent.
(Integrated market)
However, one trader did the opposite and placed a $40,000 bet on a strike that would occur on January 14, funding the day’s trading.
According to data compiled by Polymarket Analytics, a trader named “mutualdelta” deposited $40,000 into a Polymarket wallet and opened a position betting on a strike that would occur on January 14.
The market is currently pricing in a 9% chance of a strike, with bets down by more than $20,000 at press time. However, if the strike is confirmed before midnight Eastern Time, the bettor will win the money in the contract.
Overall, the market is confident that some form of military intervention will take place in war zones in the first half of this year, but bettors are less certain about the timing.
As of the evening of January 14th, U.S. time, the betting market gave a 65% chance of a strike at the end of the month, and a 74% chance of a strike on June 30.
Polymarket came under scrutiny earlier this month after a bettor won $400,000 betting on US military action in Venezuela just hours before the operation to kidnap Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.