NEW YORK (AP) — The pre-Christmas shopping rush has ended, and instead, like every year, another one has begun, with millions looking for post-holiday deals and lining up to return gifts that don’t fit or fit.
As of Sunday, holiday spending using cash or cards had surpassed last year, according to data released this week by Visa Consulting & Analytics and Mastercard SpendingPulse.
But growing unease about the U.S. economy and rising prices, driven in part by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, have changed the behavior of some Americans. Data from Placer.ai shows that more people are going to thrift stores or other discount stores instead of shopping malls. The company tracks people’s activities based on their phone usage.
They stick to their shopping lists more closely and do more research before buying. That might explain why year-to-date returns are down compared to last year, according to Adobe Analytics.
Here are three trends defining the holiday shopping season so far:
Traditional gift-giving holiday off-season
Americans are still buying gifts, but more and more are shopping at thrift stores and discount stores, according to Placer.ai.
Placer.ai said this could force traditional retailers such as department stores to work harder to win over customers.
Clothing and electronics, which traditionally dominate holiday sales, did see a surge, but growth was slow, according to Placer.ai. Both goods are largely imported and therefore vulnerable to tariffs.
For example, department store traffic in the week before Christmas (December 15 to Sunday) was double the average for this year’s shopping week. But passenger traffic in the week before Christmas this year was down 13.2% compared with 2024.
Traditional sellers selling only clothing saw a 61% increase in traffic in the week leading up to the holiday compared to the rest of the year. But compared with last year’s Christmas Eve, sales fell again by 9%.
Some of the lost traffic may have been diverted to so-called discount stores — chains like TJ Maxx. The industry’s seasonal passenger traffic increased significantly by 85.1%, with an increase of 1.2% in the week before the holiday.
But it’s the thrift stores that are booming, with foot traffic in the week before Christmas up nearly 11% compared to last year.
“Whether looking for designer deals or discovering one-of-a-kind vintage pieces, consumers are increasingly favoring discovery-driven experiences over the standardized assortments of traditional retail,” Shira Petrack, head of content at Placer.ai, said in a blog post on Friday.
Thrift stores broaden appeal
In the past, buying a used sweater or pair of pants from your local thrift store to give to your mom might have seemed tacky, but against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and rising prices, that doesn’t seem to be the case, Placer.ai said.
By the second half of 2025, thrift store traffic will increase by at least 10% compared to last year. Placer.ai said this suggests environmental concerns and economic concerns are drawing more Americans to thrift stores. Thrift store traffic doesn’t typically increase during the holidays, but during the recent Black Friday weekend, sales jumped 5.5%, according to Placer.ai. reported.
According to data from Placer.ai, traffic at traditional clothing stores fell by more than 3% in November, while traffic at thrift stores soared by 12.7%.
The migration of thrifts has changed the demographics of thrift stores. According to STI:PopStats demographic data combined with Placer.ai data, the average household income of savings customers reached $75,000 in October and November this year, up slightly from $74,900 last year, and $74,600 in 2023, which is well above the average income of $74,100 in 2022.
Executives at thrift store chain Savers Value Village’s said in late October that U.S. sales rose 10.5% in the three months ended Sept. 27 and that momentum continued into October.
“Higher household income groups continue to be a larger part of our consumer mix,” Chief Executive Mark Walsh told analysts. “That’s for sure, and our younger demographic continues to grow as well.”
Less returns so far
Return rates in the six weeks leading up to the holiday season were down compared to the same period last year, according to Adobe Analytics.
Vivek Pandya, principal analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said this suggests shoppers are conducting more research before adding items to their shopping lists and are more disciplined in adhering to lists they create.
“I think this is very reflective of consumer purchasing consciousness,” Pandya said. “A lot of them are very specific about how the budget is going to be spent.”
Adobe reported that from November 1 to December 12, returns were down 2.5% from last year. In the seven days following Cyber Week (the five shopping days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday), returns fell 0.1%.
According to Adobe, online sales increased 6% from November 1 to December 12 to $187.3 billion, which is expected to exceed expectations for the quarter.
Adobe said returns for the period Dec. 26 to Dec. 31 are expected to rise 25% to 35% compared with returns for the period Nov. 1 to Dec. 12, and it expects returns to remain elevated during the first two weeks of January, rising 8% to 15%.
This is the first year Adobe has tracked returns.
Still, returns are most concentrated in the last week of December: Adobe says 1 in every 8 returns for the 2024 holiday season will occur between December 26 and December 31, a trend it expects to continue this year.
