NEW YORK (PIX11) – An active weather pattern remains in place across the eastern United States, with forecast guidance increasingly pointing toward a more impactful winter storm later this week.
While it’s too early to determine exact snowfall totals, the amount of snowfall in the tri-state area Friday into Saturday is interesting in its own right.
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When does the impact begin?
Current guidance suggests rain is likely to arrive on Friday night and continue overnight into Saturday. Confidence in the timing is higher than earlier in the week, while the type of storm and type of precipitation remains a big question.
Rain, snow and ice are all on the table, with the highest chances for pure blizzard conditions in northwestern New Jersey, southeastern New York and the Connecticut River Valley.
Northern high pressure
The most important factor in this forecast is the formation of a strong area of high pressure over New England.
This high-pressure system will determine whether cold air gets locked into the eastern United States, and if it remains stable, it will support heavy, wet snow in parts of the region. If it weakens or moves eastward too quickly, warm air could blow in, turning the snow into a mix or rain — especially near the coast.
More: The latest news from across the tri-state
In short, this high-pressure system is make-or-break. A key need for a winter storm in New York City is cold high pressure to the north. Without it, warm air would flood the layers of the atmosphere, creating cold rain.
Storm track could be favorable for snow — but with caveats
Currently, the entire storm track is conducive to more severe snow events, similar in nature to mid-December storms, with many locations receiving 6 inches or more of snow.
However, we’re still days away, and small orbital changes will have a big impact on who sees the snow and winter mix.
Models are not yet agreed upon
Predictive models remain split:
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European model (Euro):
A warmer solution, tracking the main low further north. That could mean cold weather for New York City and the South, with snow mainly concentrated inland and at higher elevations. -
GFS model:
A cooler solution to support severe snowstorms in the New York metro area.
What we know versus what we are observing
Higher confidence:
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Active storm window Friday night into Saturday
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Precipitation is common in the area, characterized by ice/snow/rain
Lower confidence (currently):
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Potential snow duration
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