When the NCAA men’s basketball tournament tips off Sunday night, some coaches may have to resist the urge to pump their fists under the table.
Maybe they’re in a region with a fragile top-four seed that peaked two months early but is slipping into March. Or maybe they drew an opponent in the first round who was weakened by season-ending injuries to key players.
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The purpose of this now-annual column is to identify the opponents that NCAA tournament teams should draw before advancing to the next round. These teams, for whatever reason, don’t appear to be as strong as teams projected to receive similar seeds.
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Three years ago, this column identified Purdue more than a week before it became just the second top seed ever to collapse in the first round. Last year, this column correctly identified Kansas State and Marquette as early exit opportunities, but faltered and failed to label Tennessee as the most volatile top-two seed. We hope there are more hits than misses this time.
If Purdue can’t get it together defensively, the Boilermakers could be out early. (AP Photo/Sue Ogroki)
(Associated Press)
Purdue Boiler Makers
Record: 23-8, 13-7 Big Ten | Projected seed: No. 3
No matter how lethal Purdue’s offense has been this season, or how many times Brayden Smith has covered the defense. If the preseason No. 1 Boilermakers can’t provide some level of defensive resistance, they won’t be able to make a deep run into the NCAA Tournament.
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Purdue’s defense collapsed as it lost seven straight in 13 games, ending a once-promising regular season. Opposing defenders get into the paint too easily and take advantage of the Boilermakers’ slow rotation and lack of rim protection, leading to a string of easy layups or uncontested catch-and-shoot three-pointers.
Since Purdue has played Smith and Fletcher Loyer together nearly 67% of the time in Big Ten games, opponents always have two smaller defenders to target. Trey Kaufman-Lane struggled with perimeter rotations and space defense, and Oscar Clough isn’t the formidable interior defender who can eliminate turnovers at the rim.
Purdue’s 97-93 home loss to Wisconsin in the final regular season game was a microcosm of the Boilermakers’ defensive woes. The Badgers smashed any ball screens Purdue tried to throw at them and created endless catch-and-shoot opportunities, hitting 18 of 34 attempts from beyond the arc and 11 of 16 attempts in the paint.
Purdue has so much offensive firepower that it just needs enough defense to get back to being a Final Four contender, but the Boilermakers haven’t been at that level often lately. A team with athletic, playmaking guards and plenty of shooters should be salivating at the chance to try and top Purdue.
The Tar Heels were dealt a huge blow when Caleb Wilson suffered a season-ending fracture to his right thumb. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
(Lance King via Getty Images)
North Carolina Tar Heels
Record: 24-7, 12-6 ACC | Projected seed: No. 5-6
Just days before Caleb Wilson was supposed to return to the North Carolina lineup, he suffered an untimely injury. The much-hyped freshman broke his right thumb while practicing a dunk and got it stuck on the rim.
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Wilson’s absence makes it more difficult for North Carolina to reach Indianapolis in a few weeks. This is a dark horse contender for the Final Four, with a healthy Wilson drawing more defenders to the paint, creating more possessions on the offensive glass and changing opponents’ shots at the rim. Without him averaging 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, the Tar Heels would be lucky to survive more than a round or two in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina has outscored its opponents by 16.6 points per 100 possessions this season with Wilson on the court, according to CBB Analytics. When Wilson is off the court, that gap shrinks to 7.6 points per 100 possessions.
In Wilson’s absence, North Carolina will need to rely on tenacious Henri Veesaar in the frontcourt, an elite passer and by far the team’s most skilled player. The Tar Heels went 5-2 in their final seven games of the regular season without Wilson, but their ceiling isn’t as high as it was a week ago.
In order for BYU to overcome an injury-plagued regular season, the Cougars will need AJ Dybantsa to prove why he’s an NBA lottery pick. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
(Chris Gardner via Getty Images)
BYU Cougars
Record: 22-10, 9-9 Big 12 | Projected seed: No. 6-7
As recently as mid-January, AP voters considered BYU one of the top 10 teams in college basketball. Two months later, the Cougars were a No. 10 seed in the Big 12 Tournament.
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The regular season started with rumors of BYU reaching the Final Four for the first time in history, but ended in disarray for the Cougars. They lost nine of their last 14 games to finish tied for seventh in the Big 12 and suffered the indignity of having to start Tuesday night.
In late November, tight end Dawson Baker and guard Richie Saunders, who was named to the Big 12 team in mid-February, suffered season-ending ACL tears, which undoubtedly contributed to BYU’s collapse. Without Sanders’ 18 points per game and ability to stretch the floor, the Cougars went from an elite offense to a very good team.
However, offense is clearly not an issue for a team led by potential No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa and talented point guard Robert Wright. BYU’s defense has been ranked outside the top 200 nationally since mid-January and is the primary reason BYU has failed to live up to preseason expectations. The point of attack defense has been lackluster. The slow spin resulted in a lot of open jump shots. Once opponents miss a chance, they create too many second chances.
DiBanza scored a dazzling 40 points on Tuesday to lead BYU to a 105-91 victory over Kansas State in the Cougars’ opener of the Big 12 Tournament. When he and Wright get going, BYU can still score more points than almost anyone. When DiBanza and Wright were solid, BYU’s defensive deficiencies were too obvious to overcome.
Miami (Ohio) completed a historic regular season, but how will the Redhawks fare against stronger opponents in the NCAA Tournament? (Photo by Dylan Burr/Getty Images)
(Dylan Burr via Getty Images)
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks
Record: 31-0, 18-0 MAC | Projected seed: No. 10-11
Miami could make itself look silly for being on this list next week. The undefeated Redhawks have the potential to extend their national profile by toppling a big name or two to evoke memories of Wally Szczerbiak’s glory days.
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It’s also possible that Miami looks like an underdog against quality competition for the first time all season.
Miami couldn’t find a single power conference program or elite mid-level major interested in fielding a MAC title contender that returns six of its nine best players from a team that won 25 games last season. As a result, the Redhawks have a soft schedule that includes three NAIA opponents and several other games against Division I teams.
Their most impressive result of the season was a three-point home victory over Akron. Otherwise, they haven’t beaten any team ranked higher than the 134th-ranked Nets. Nine of their games either went to overtime or were decided by three points or less, which resulted in them ranking 91st in the KenPom rankings and ranking similarly low in other predictors of winning percentage.
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At the very least, Miami has proven itself to be an elite MAC team, one that plays on the road in front of big crowds and withstands everyone’s best shots. They also hit a lot of three-pointers, which increases their threat level as an underdog.
However, if you were the sixth or seventh seed, who would you want to draw? Miami or Texas A&M? Miami or Ohio State? Heck, Miami or Santa Clara? You’d rather face a team with projections in the 90s than a team in the 30s.
