UConn is a giant.
Geno Auriemma’s Huskies have improved this season after losing Paige Bueckers and will enter the NCAA Tournament with a 34-0 record. They defeated Villanova 90-51 to win the Big East Championship. They defeated Creighton 100-51 in the semifinals.
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They played five games against ranked opponents and won each game by an average of 20 points. Only then—no. 6 Michigan won 72-69 over the Huskies, staying within single digits of UConn. That was November 21st.
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Since then, only Villanova has been within 14 points of UConn on Feb. 18. But that doesn’t mean the Huskies are guaranteed to win a 13th national championship.
UConn’s biggest mistake isn’t itself. It had a poor Big East schedule with no ranked opponents, so it cruised through without a challenge. How will it react when it takes on a battle-hardened team in the NCAA tournament?
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There is at least one team that can legitimately challenge a healthy UConn team in a single-elimination tournament, and there are a handful of SEC teams looking to join the conversation.
These four teams have the best chance of upsets and UConn’s only losses of the season.
Lauern Betts and the Bruins are heading into the NCAA Tournament with strong momentum. (Robert Godin-Iman Photos)
(Image from Reuters Connect/REUTERS)
UCLA
UCLA is the clear No. 1 challenger to UConn. In any season where UConn isn’t doing what it’s doing, UCLA is going to be the undisputed dominant force in the game.
The Bruins were 34-1, with their only loss coming against the then-No. 1 team. Nov. 26 vs. Texas. Since then, they’ve gone 25-0 against a tougher schedule than UConn, which also has a tough Big Ten roster.
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UConn faces five ranked opponents, while UCLA faces 13 opponents. The Bruins defeated 12 of those opponents, including a 96-45 victory over No. 9 Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. UCLA is 19-1 against Quad 1 opponents, while UConn is 9-0.
Even Auriemma admitted after UCLA’s dominant win in the Big Ten title that the Bruins would be a good choice for the No. 1 seed.
“If you said UCLA was No. 1, No. 1, I would say, ‘Wow, they’re really good, I have absolutely no problem with that,'” Auriemma said. “I mean, look what they did last game.”
UCLA also compares pretty well to UConn in advanced analytics. UConn ranks second nationally in offensive efficiency. UCLA ranks No. 1
The Huskies rank first in defensive efficiency, while the Bruins rank 24th. But UCLA has a much tougher schedule. These measures do not adjust against opponents. UCLA’s NET ranking is second only to UConn.
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Lauren Betts, the Big Ten Player of the Year and reigning All-American, leads a lineup that also includes Kiki Rice, a first-team All-Big Ten selection.
As far as UConn’s challengers go, there’s UCLA, and everyone else.
The season ended with Madison Booker and the Texans playing their best basketball in a tough SEC. (Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(“Icon Sportswire” via Getty Images)
Texas
UConn’s other top challengers are from the SEC. Leading the way is a Texas team that handed UCLA its lone loss and enters the NCAA Tournament on an eight-game winning streak, including five over ranked opponents, en route to the SEC Tournament title.
Texas seemed to be peaking at the right time as it easily defeated No. 3 South Carolina in the SEC title game, winning 78-61.
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Texas is elite on both sides of the ball, ranking fifth nationally in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. It reached those numbers in the nation’s best conference competition and posted a 14-3 record against Quad 1 opponents. Only UCLA has the most wins in four games.
All-SEC selections Madison Booker and Rori Harmon lead the way.
Dawn Staley has coached three NCAA championship teams, including two of the past four. (Jim Dedmon – Image)
(Image from Reuters Connect/REUTERS)
south carolina
South Carolina has taken a slight step back from UConn since winning the national title twice in three seasons in 2022 and 2024. But not by much.
South Carolina looked like the best team in the SEC for much of the season until Texas’ 17-point win in the SEC Championship led to its second loss to the Longhorns in three games.
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The Gamecocks went 31-3 and 15-1 in the SEC regular season, eventually winning the league’s regular season championship. They are 12-3 against Quad 1 opponents and ranked third in the NET rankings, ahead of fourth-place Texas.
Like Texas, South Carolina excels on both ends of the floor, ranking fourth nationally in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency.
South Carolina is deep. The Gamecocks boast five All-SEC players in Joyce Edwards, Raven Johnson, Tessa Johnson, Ta’Niya Latson and Madina Okot. They are led by three-time national champion head coach Dawn Staley.
Texas holds the advantage in the head-to-head matchup with South Carolina, but outside of that game, the Gamecocks are as serious a challenger to UConn’s throne as any team other than UCLA.
In 2023, they won the NCAA championship together with Flau’jae Johnson. (Tyler Kaufman/Getty Images)
(Tyler Kaufman via Getty Images)
Louisiana State University
Joining South Carolina is another SEC program with a championship pedigree in Louisiana State University (LSU).
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LSU finished fourth in the SEC regular season (12-4) and lost to South Carolina in the tournament semifinals. Like their SEC opponents, the Tigers are elite on both sides of the ball, ranking third nationally in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency.
The Tigers are 1-4 against Texas, LSU and Vanderbilt, which doesn’t bode well for a potential clash with UConn. They have an 8-5 record in Quad 1 play, which is good but not on the same level as the above teams.
LSU can boast two-time All-SEC selections in Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams. Johnson, a reigning All-American and former NCAA champion, was a starter on LSU’s 2023 championship team as a freshman. As a fourth-year starter, few players in the tournament can match her resume.
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No coach in the country is as ready to go head-to-head with Auriemma and Staley as Kim Mulkey, who has coached four teams to NCAA championships.
