Long-run analysis: Which GTP teams have the edge entering the Rolex 24?

After three practice sessions at the Rolex 24, the world looks very different at the start of the 2026 IMSA SportsCar Championship season than it did at last weekend’s ‘Roar’ pre-season testing. There are new favorites in both GTP and GTD Pro levels.

As with Roar, we analyzed all times under 1 minute 40 minutes in the GTP level and calculated the average. Notably, the balance of performance (BoP) has not changed since pretesting.

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Check out my personal results from three free practice sessions below:

The results of the third free practice session in particular should be treated with caution as there were three red flag interruptions.

Now let’s look at these three meetings together. If we count all laps within 1 minute and 40 minutes and calculate the average, we get the following order:

1. MSR-Acura #60 – 1:37.530 (43 laps under 1:40)

2. AXR-Cadillac #31 – 1:37.812 (70)

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3. Penske-Porsche #6 – 1:37.838 (69)

4. Penske-Porsche #7 – 1:37.848 (76)

5. WTR-Cadillac #10 – 1:38.012 (68)

6. WTR-Cadillac #40 – 1:38.031 (60)

7. MSR-Acura #93 – 1:38.065 (53)

8.WRT-BMW #24 – 1:38.163 (49)

9. JDC-Miller-Porsche #85 – 1:38.214 (84)

10.WRT-BMW #25 – 1:38.261 (33)

11. Thor-Aston Martin #23 – 1:38.613 (52)

The Meyer Shank Acura #60 (Blomqvist/Braun/Dixon/Allmendinger) was suddenly the fastest car in the field by a relatively clear margin. Will this suddenly make Acura the favorite?

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Van der Zande: We are not favorites to win the title

Renger van der Zande from sister car No. 93 Acura firmly denied that they were favorites: “Honestly, not true. I thought we had a very good car in qualifying. But I don’t think we had the fastest car in the race, and that worries me. I think Cadillac and Porsche are in the best position. Hopefully I’m wrong.”

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Rivals scoffed at such remarks. “They are world champions who play down their chances,” said a source from the Porsche camp. Cadillac is also eyeing the Honda luxury brand. Acura’s argument, on the other hand, is bolstered by the fact that both ARX-06s completed relatively few laps in 1 minute and 40 minutes.

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Speaking of Cadillacs: The Action Express Cadillac #31 (Aitken/Bamber/Vesti/Zilisch) averaged slightly better than the two factory Porsches. Wayne Taylor Racing’s two Cadillac V-Series.Rs were close behind, while HRC’s Meyer-Shank Acura #93 (van der Zande/Yelloly/Palou/Ohta) likely completed a different plan than the #60.

BMW: Rescue in final practice?

Also read:

BMW M Team WRT boss Vosse: IMSA plans to ‘give us time’

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BMW also has some concerns. WRT’s debut as a GTP team has long caused consternation. The car doesn’t have access windows, major aerodynamic updates don’t seem to work properly, and drivers aren’t happy with the handling.

But in the final practice match, we accomplished a trick that at least gave the WRT camp some hope. However, it’s doubtful whether this will be enough to close the gap by more than half a second.

WRT remains supported by WEC staff in the operational aspects of the IMSA season opener. This is logical considering the winter break of the World Championships. WRT team boss Vincent Vosse asks for patience in interview Motorsport – Total.com:

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“If you compare us to the U.S. team, we are complete rookies. We start from scratch. Of course, we bring experience [from the WEC] Together with us, we have some new members in the team who were already active in IMSA last year. But it all has to come together and work. This is our first game, so please give us some time. “

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But how much patience does BMW have? In the fourth year of the LMDh program, success is a must. “The question isn’t how much time we need,” Voss interjected. “The question is: ‘What do we need?’ There are a lot of things that need to come together.” Voss knows what he’s talking about; After all, WRT is the benchmark for GT3 racing.

And Aston Martin? Things haven’t improved since the pre-test. “Daytona is a very special track. We can’t learn too much from Le Mans because it’s a special track in its own right.”

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Improvements compared to “Roar” – GTP

Let’s take another look at the improvements compared to last week’s pretest.

1. MSR-Acura #60 – 1.004 seconds faster than the Roar

2. AXR-Cadillac #31 – 0.850

3.MSR Acura #93 – 0.558

4.WRT-BMW #25 – 0.461

5. WTR-Cadillac #40 – 0.446

6. WTR-Cadillac #10 – 0.441

7. Penske-Porsche #6 – 0.353

8.WRT-BMW #24 – 0.329

9. Thor-Aston Martin #23 – 0.317

10. JDC-Miller-Porsche #85 – 0.253

11. Penske-Porsche #7 – 0.247

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On average, the GTP cars are about four-tenths of a second faster. Aston Martin only jumped an average of 0.317 seconds across all lap times in the 1 minute 40 minute period.

For a Porsche, the improvements are minimal, too. All three 963s improved below the median. The biggest jump was made by No. 6 Penske-Porsche (L. Vanthoor/Estre/Campbell) with a time of 0.353 seconds.

In Cadillac, Action Express Racing’s improvements were significantly better than Wayne Taylor Racing’s two V-Series.R cars. However, Acura made the biggest leap forward. There could be a number of reasons for this, ranging from improvements in set-up to sandbagging in pre-season testing, or several other factors.

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New tires as the unknown factor

The race will be particularly exciting due to two interacting factors: the new Michelin tires and the weather.

The new generation of slicks, with their stunning looks, is said to impress first and foremost with its improved warm-up performance, but also brings improvements in durability. Jack Aitken, who had put the No. 31 Cadillac on pole before being penalized, said when asked Motorsports Network At least in qualifying, the difference isn’t that big.

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The weather forecast is excellent, with temperatures expected to be near 80 degrees on Sunday. With temperatures unusually high even for Florida in January, this game may be one of the warmest in history.

This means soft tires will only be used briefly, if at all, at night. Michelin allows the use of soft tires from 5pm to 10am, which is a wider window than in previous years. But temperatures narrow that window significantly.

This is where Acura’s concerns come into play. Van der Zande: “When accelerating into the departure pin, we tend to put more pressure on the tires than Porsche and Cadillac. That makes it more difficult for us for a longer period of time.” The heat doesn’t help either. But the yellow phase in the last hour might…”

Also read:

Rexy vs. Grello: Porsche icons prepare to face off in Rolex 24

2016 Rolex 24: Remembering the thrilling Corvette photo finish

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