The slump in the cryptocurrency market has been particularly hard for leading U.S. exchange Coinbase (COIN), whose shares have fallen more than 50% since Bitcoin topped a record of $126,000 in early October, including a 27% drop in 2026 alone.
In pursuit of this rapid downward trend, J.P. Morgan’s Ken Worthington lowered his price target on COIN from $399 to $290 ahead of Thursday’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the close.
Worthington remains bullish on the stock, and his lowered target still indicates room for 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $1,655.
Adjusted EBITDA for the Worthington project was $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. He said this would be a significant decrease from previous quarters, mainly due to lower trading volumes, weaker cryptocurrency prices, and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances.
Worthington estimates cryptocurrency spot trading volume at $263 billion this quarter. He also pointed to a decline in USDC’s circulation, simulating stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million. These headwinds were partially offset by a full-quarter contribution from Deribit, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange that Coinbase acquired in August.
JPMorgan calculated total trading revenue, including Deribit, at $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing about $117 million, and trading volume estimated at $586 billion. Last quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in trading revenue.
On subscriptions and services, the bank expects revenue of $670 million, down from Coinbase’s previous guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting weaker cryptocurrency prices, lower staking yields and slower USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to be lower than expected as the company controls costs.
Other sellers are also involved
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his forecast is about 10% lower than the adjusted EBITDA consensus due to weakness in retail trading and blockchain reward revenue. “Based on Robinhood’s interpretation, our retail trading revenue is significantly lower and our blockchain reward revenue is also significantly lower,” Budish wrote, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available trading volume data.
Barclays estimates Coinbase’s trading volume this quarter was approximately $261 billion. He said retail cryptocurrency trading volumes reported by Robinhood (HOOD), which have historically closely matched those of Coinbase, were down about 15% quarter-on-quarter.
Compass Point strikes a more pessimistic tone. Analyst Ed Engel said he is negative on the stock’s earnings and expects disappointment in the subscription and services segments. “While investors are placing a premium on COIN’s S&S business, we expect fourth-quarter results to confirm that overall revenue remains tied to overall cryptocurrency prices,” Engel wrote. He also expects trading revenue in January to reflect the weakest performance in Coinbase’s retail business since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the headlines, investors are likely to focus on commentary on trading activity in early 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related revenue, and whether new initiatives such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures operations can effectively offset volatility in the spot cryptocurrency market.