Three tests were conducted in one week. The first is employment data, which is about to be printed for April, the first data to be released since delays caused by the federal shutdown in 2025.
The weaker-than-expected print provided assurances that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates sooner. A strong person delays it. The second is a closer look at Bitcoin Treasury Bond trading.
Strategy, Coinbase, MARA, CleanSpark, Hut 8 and Core Scientific all report first-quarter earnings this week. Riot has sold 3,778 Bitcoins last quarter at an average price of $76,626. MARA sold 15,133 units.
The third is the Federal Reserve itself. On Friday, San Francisco Fed CEO and President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby gave speeches on central bank independence at Hoover, the same week that Jerome Powell resigned as chairman (but not the Fed itself) amid pressure from the White House.
Jennifer Hanny, a partner at Echo Base, told CoinDesk, “Investors are not heavily positioned and volatility remains low, creating an asymmetrical pattern: the market appears stable on the surface but may react quickly to any catalyst that forces a repricing of risk.”
What to see
(All times are Eastern Time)
- cryptocurrency
- May 4: Coinbase will delist dai (DAI) and convert remaining tokens to USDS.
- May 4th: ZKsync Lite will be completely deprecated.
- Macro
- May 4, 11:30 pm: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision is expected to be 4.35% (previous value 4.1%)
- May 5, 09:00 AM: US JOLT March job openings (first 6.882M)
- 09:00 am on May 5: The US April ISM services PMI estimate is 54 (previous value 54)
- 4:00 a.m. on May 6: Eurozone producer price index in March year-on-year (previous value -3%); month-on-month (previous value -0.7%)
- May 6, 07:15 am: U.S. ADP employment changes in April (previous value 62K)
- May 6, 6:50 pm: Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting
- May 7, 07:30 AM: U.S. initial jobless claims as of May 2 (previous value 189K)
- May 7, 3:30 PM: Fed balance sheet as of May 6 (previous value $6.700)
- May 8, 7:30 a.m.: Canada’s unemployment rate in April (previous value 6.7%)
- May 8, 07:30 AM: U.S. nonfarm payroll employment in April is expected to be 73,000 (previously 178,000)
- May 8, 07:30 am: The U.S. unemployment rate in April is estimated at 4.3% (previous value 4.3%)
- May 8, 07:30 am: U.S. average hourly earnings in April are estimated to be 0.3% month-on-month (previous value: 0.2%); year-on-year (previous value: 3.5%)
- May 8, 09:00 am: Michigan consumer confidence index in May (previous value 49.8)
- May 8, 6:30 p.m.: Fed Chairs Mary Daly and Austen Goolsby will participate in a session on “Central Bank Independence, Structure, and Future Risks”
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
- May 5: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$12.95
- May 5: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.27
- May 5: Cipher Digital (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.08
- May 5: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, -$0.45
- May 6: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.34
- May 6: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.04
- May 7: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-listing, $0.26
- May 7: Block (XYZ), post-listing, $0.60
- May 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.19
- May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, -$0.23
Token event
- Governance votes and calls
- The Lido DAO is voting on a time-sensitive proposal to temporarily reduce the EarnETH first loss protection trigger rate below the standard 1% threshold to ensure that users are fully compensated if the rsETH gap is resolved through DeFi United. Voting closes on May 6.
- The Beefy DAO is voting to authorize its Treasury Board to conduct private, discretionary BIFI buybacks when the token price falls below its calculated “fair value.” The bought-back tokens will be held as a non-circulating supply. Voting closes on May 6.
- World Liberty Financial is voting to restructure the ownership of locked WLFI tokens. Early backers will receive a 4-year vesting schedule, while insiders must burn 10% of their allocations and accept a 5-year vesting schedule. Voting closes on May 6.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to release 30,766 ETH frozen by its security committee following the Kelp DAO exploit that restored the fund to DeFi United. Voting ends on May 7.
- The CoW DAO is voting on whether to use its legal defense reserves to compensate users who lost $1.2 million in the April 14 ow.fi domain hijack. Voting ends on May 7.
- Mantle DAO voted to lend up to 30,000 ETH to Aave as a 36-month structured credit facility, based on Lido’s stETH staking returns plus a 1% spread, as part of DeFi United’s rsETH recovery. Voting ends on May 8.
- Unlock
- May 5: Ethena (ENA) unlocks 2.12% of its circulating supply, worth $17.34 million.
- May 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.18% of its circulating supply, worth $17.5 million.
- Token issuance
- May 5: Virtual Protocols is expected to conduct an OPG airdrop snapshot.
- May 8: SoSoValue’s final testnet airdrop is expected to be completed.
- May 4-10: BNB is expected to conduct its 35th quarterly burn.