Our old winter friend, the polar vortex, will send frigid air south from Canada twice again in January, once on the weekend of January 17 and again about a week later.
“The first round of cold air over the weekend and early next week appears to be the appetizer, and next week’s main course will be the cold air,” AEM climatologist Judah Cohen said in an email to USA TODAY on Jan. 14. “I think the second round of cold air is likely to be more extreme.”
Another expert, Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue, agreed, noting this week that while “this is over the next two weeks, so the details and intensity will change, we can expect to see a potentially historic Arctic ‘polar vortex’ sweep across North America by the end of January.”
The “stretched” polar vortex
According to the National Weather Service, the polar vortex is not a storm but a large, persistent area of ​​low pressure and extremely cold air high in the atmosphere at the Earth’s poles. It is present year-round, but intensifies in winter when polar temperatures drop, and weakens in summer.
When the vortex is strong, cold air becomes trapped over the poles.
However, when the vortex weakens, extends, or is disrupted, unspeakable fragments of cold air can spill south into the United States, Europe, or Asia, creating bursts of arctic cold air. This is what happened in January.
According to Cohen, we will have a polar vortex in mid-January. Temperatures will return to below normal levels in this stretch of eastern U.S.
Most recently, much of North America’s cold air was removed in early January by a strong (but more importantly circular) polar vortex, which allowed mild Pacific air to flood much of Canada and the United States. As the last week of January approaches, the polar vortex will briefly weaken before its next extension.
By then, “the polar vortex will start in western North America and then slide rapidly eastward. This will appear to complement the cold air we see over western Canada during much of December, then move southeast into the north-central United States and eventually into the northeastern United States by the fourth week of January,” Cohen said.
Arctic air currents are expected to continue sweeping across the eastern half of the country from January 15th to 25th. Meanwhile, the west will stay warm.
What does this mean for snowy, cold temperatures?
Cohen told USA Today that “snow” is a $64,000 problem. “It looks like the usual spots will continue to see snow, around the Great Lakes and in lake effect areas in northern New England. Whether or not big cities get a lot of snow is a tough call. I think the pattern will eventually start to produce more widespread snow, but not as much. In the meantime, it’s looking like more nasty snow coming from the Alberta Clippers.”
According to AccuWeather, storms from the south will have a hard time intensifying quickly along the Atlantic coast and becoming major blizzards due to the steep and circular shape of the jet stream.
“Instead, most storms will remain weak, fast-moving and disappear offshore for much of next week,” AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said in an online forecast. “However, any fluctuations, even brief ones, could be enough to allow southern storms to move north and hug the Atlantic coast.”
Meanwhile, temperatures in Chicago are expected to drop from near average to 10 to 20 degrees below average over the next one to two weeks, AccuWeather said. Chicago’s average high temperature is nearly 32 degrees Fahrenheit.
During the formation of the polar vortex, temperatures in New York City will drop from the mid-30s near historical averages to as low as 5-10 degrees.
This article originally appeared in USA Today: January 2026 polar vortex forecast warns of 2 Arctic explosions
