In a February 3, 2026 Barchart article asking whether gold and silver were too risky and what signals mining stocks were sending, I came to the following conclusion:
Gold and silver prices remain at historically high levels, above levels seen in late 2025, sustaining buying interest in mining stocks. As a result, leading gold and silver mining stocks are adding uncertainty to the path of least resistance for the underlying metals. Keep an eye on how miners perform in the coming days and weeks as they can provide clues about where metal prices are headed. However, with gold at $4,700 and silver above $75, miners will continue to make healthy profits.
On February 2, the nearby COMEX futures contract for silver was trading at $78.91 per ounce. Silver prices rose over $4 in early March as the metal has rebounded but faced resistance at the mid-$92.50 level.
The daily continuous chart of COMEX silver futures highlights the extreme price swings over the past few months.
The chart shows that COMEX silver futures have recently risen 72.5%, rising from the closing price of US$70.603 on December 31, 2025 to the historical high of US$121.785 per ounce on January 29, 2026. On February 6, 2026, silver hit a low of $63.90, a correction of 47.5%.
After experiencing wild swings in the silver futures market in late 2025 (exceeding the 1980 high) and corrections in late January 2026 (prices exceeded $120 per ounce) and subsequent late January and early February, silver prices have been recovering in an orderly manner.
As the chart shows, silver prices have been making higher lows and higher highs since early February, climbing above $90 an ounce in late February, rising above $97 an ounce in early March, and then falling below $84 an ounce.
Reasons for rising silver prices include:
Silver remains in a long-term bullish trend after rising to 1980 highs of $50.36 an ounce in 2025.
Demand for silver, both speculative and industrial, is exploding. The Silver Association predicts a deficit of 117.7 million ounces in 2025, with supply exceeding demand.
Silver is a highly speculative metal and attracted significant buying interest when prices rose to all-time highs in 2025.
The Silver Association reports that global silver demand is expected to remain “Little changed in 2026 as healthy growth in retail investment is likely to offset much of the losses in other key demand areas, notably jewellery, silverware and industrial demand“.
A weaker U.S. dollar and the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates have historically been positive for silver prices.
Based on cumulative inflation, silver’s 1980 high was $50.36 per ounce, equivalent to nearly $200 per ounce.
Mexico is the world’s leading silver producer, producing nearly twice as much as China, the second largest silver producer.
While silver remains in a bullish trend and has good supply and demand fundamentals, the price has risen to levels of heightened volatility.
Silver tends to be twice as volatile as gold on a percentage basis. Gold’s monthly historical volatility in early March was 17.06%, which was more than half of silver’s historical volatility of 36.53%. The following factors could hinder silver’s rise:
Given the higher prices, large inventories of silver held by individuals are likely to be sold to refiners, adding to supply in the coming months.
Long liquidation and profit-taking in long-held silver risk positions could put pressure on prices.
Above $80 an ounce, and after the recent sharp correction, the risk to the silver futures market has increased for the bulls.
While silver remains bullish and higher highs are likely, any long or short risk position requires careful attention to the risk-reward dynamics.
Two leading diversified silver mining ETFs are the GX Silver Miners ETF (SIL), which holds shares of leading senior silver mining companies, and the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), which holds shares of top junior silver mining and exploration companies.
COMEX silver futures rose 141.44% in 2025, rising another 72.5% from the end of last year to a high in January 2026, and then experienced a 47.5% correction. On March 4, the price of silver was US$83.184 per ounce, up US$30.2 from the low on February 6.
The five-year monthly chart of the SIL ETF shows it gaining 162.9% in 2025 and 42.8% in early 2026, reaching highs in late January. Subsequently, SIL retraced 32.3% and rose 33.12% on March 4.
The five-year monthly chart of the SILJ ETF shows gains of 178.6% in 2025 and 48.5% in early 2026, reaching highs in late January. SILJ subsequently corrected 35.1% and was up 36.78% on March 4.
I view similar performance in silver futures and the senior and junior silver mining ETFs as positive signs of continued speculative investment demand for silver. Mining stocks will outperform silver in 2025, indicating strong investment demand. The underperformance of SIL and SILJ from late 2025 to the late January 2092 highs proved to be a warning sign. Mining stocks outperformed silver futures during the correction, suggesting market participants purchased senior and junior mining stocks. Mining stocks have been moving in lockstep with silver futures prices since the lows.
Keep an eye on the performance of mining stocks versus silver futures as it can provide clues about the path of least resistance for silver prices in the days, weeks and months ahead.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for reference only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
