Bitcoin’s exchange-traded funds may follow gold’s structural strategy ahead of its historic surge in 2025, suggesting a potential parabolic move awaits the top cryptocurrency.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan highlighted this analogy during a podcast with influencer Michael ‘Threadguy’ Jerome.
“This is the same thing that happened in Bitcoin,” Hougan said, pointing to gold’s shift after central banks began “panic buying” in 2022 following sanctions over the Ukraine war.
Starting in 2022, central bank demand for gold will jump from 400 tons to more than 1,000 tons per year. This constant buying absorbed supply for years, eventually triggering a price explosion: Gold closed lower in 2022, rose 13% in 2023, rose 27% in 2024, and then surged nearly 65% in 2025.
“Ultimately, what gold is telling you is that sellers are running out of ammunition. That’s when prices go parabolic,” analysts said.
He sees the same pattern in the Bitcoin ETF, which has been buying more than 100% of new supply since its launch. “So I do think gold has shown what’s going to happen … if buyer demand persists, we’re going to have a parabolic blowout.”
This “gold first, Bitcoin follows” pattern has been observed before, as highlighted in a previous article Decrypt “Gold tends to move first, and then Bitcoin follows and outperforms,” Lawrence Lepard, co-founder of Equity Management Associates, noted in a note.
In addition, Merkle Tree Capital chief investment officer Ryan McMillin previously said that after the sharp rise in gold prices, “a rapid rebound should not be the base case.” Decryptindicating that any follow-up may require patience.
Bitcoin Google searches hit 11-month low as gold continues to climb
Other analysts agree with the high-level premise — that continued buying can absorb selling pressure — but warn that Bitcoin’s moves will have its own unique volatility and drivers.
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, partially agrees with McMillin. “At a high level, ongoing structural buying absorbs market selling pressure, which is really a core feature of any supply-scarce asset entering a secular bull market,” he said. Decrypt.
However, Sun highlighted key differences in market structure.
Gold, silver hit new highs, Bitcoin trades flat ahead of key macroeconomic events
For gold, buyers are typically central banks and sovereign wealth funds seeking to “hedge their fiat currency credibility” and thereby obtain low-leverage long-term capital. Bitcoin ETF buyers, despite being institutional investors, still view it as a risky asset, resulting in “much higher” embedded leverage and trading activity.
