(NewsNation) — Federal officials say the climate phenomenon known as El Niño is increasingly likely to occur this summer, with some forecasts suggesting the strongest El Niño in history is coming.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, El Niño is a warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It occurs every two to seven years and affects weather patterns around the world.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates that the probability of an El Niño event from May to July this year is about 60%, rising to 90% from August to October.
Missouri Governor Kehoe declares ‘state of emergency’ ahead of severe weather
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced earlier this month that La Niña, a reverse weather phenomenon characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures, has officially ended.
Will “Super El Niño” come?
Matthew Sitter, assistant state climatologist at Kansas State University, said a “super El Niño” occurs when temperatures are at least 2.0°C above normal.
While El Niño events of this magnitude are rare, having occurred only four times since 1950, NOAA said there is about a 50 percent chance that this year’s El Niño will develop into a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño. The last super El Niño occurred in 2015 and lasted until 2016.
Concerns grow over Michigan dam breach as water levels soar
Federal officials note that a stronger El Niño does not necessarily mean more extreme weather.
“Stronger events do not always mean greater weather and climate impacts,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. “Stronger events make certain impacts more likely to occur.”
How will El Niño affect the United States in 2026?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States typically feels the effects of El Niño during the cooler months between October and May.
Giant typhoon hits US-controlled Pacific islands
Nexstar’s Alix Martichoux reports that the forecast for a Super El Niño means the phenomenon’s traditional weather effects, such as warm and dry winter weather in the northern half of the country and wetter, colder winter weather in southern states.
However, Marty Cooks added that if El Niño begins in the summer, as forecasters currently predict, it could also sharply increase temperatures and trigger heat waves ahead of winter. This comes after a record-breaking spring, during which many states set record high temperatures.
A strong El Niño could also lead to a mild hurricane season in the Atlantic. Andy Hazelton, associate scientist at CIMAS at the University of Miami, predicts this could be “the quietest season since 2015.”
Nexstar’s Alix Martichoux and Jeremy Tanner contributed to this report.
Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports and streaming video, head to NewsNation.
