S&P 500 futures fell this morning, with the index slipping into negative territory again this year.
Exclusive: Human investors are divided on reaction to Trump.
EXCLUSIVE: Target’s new CEO admits he faces an uphill battle.
Exclusive: Block CFO explains why company is cutting half of its workforce.
U.S. tax rebates increased 10%, lower than expected.
Wall Street predicts it will be a box office success.
Forget about the war!
market
Asia Generally higher this morning, but UK and Europe Markets were choppy before lunch. S&P 500 Index Futures Shares were down 0.45% before the New York opening this morning. The index fell 0.56% yesterday and is back in negative territory this year. Foreign markets have outperformed U.S. stocks so far this year:
Hot news
Iran
This is day seven of the war with Iran. U.S. allies in the Gulf began complaining about the collateral damage they suffered in the conflict. Iran has proven surprisingly effective at causing trouble for the attackers. Some Republicans have criticized President Trump for starting a new war after promising to end it.
exist past 24 hoursAfterwards, Israel launched more strikes against Hezbollah in Beirut and continued its attacks on Tehran. Iran launches new missile attack on Israel. Qatar has halted drone attacks on the largest U.S. base in the Middle East. Four suspected Iranian spies have been arrested in the UK for spying on Jewish communities. According to reports, more than 23,000 flights have been canceled around the world since Iran’s first retaliatory attack wealthSasha Rogberg. Iran has now been without internet for six days.
Iran has begun targeting hyperscale data centers Operated by Amazon and Microsoft in the Middle East. “The Iranians see data centers as part of the conflict,” Matt Pearl of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Financial Times. “This is a way to have a real impact on the region.”
Global energy prices continue to rise After Iranian missile attacks Bahrain’s only oil refinery, wealthJordan Blum reports. “This attack demonstrates that Iran is now willing and able to carry out direct strikes against its Gulf neighbors’ key energy assets, further calling into question the security of the region’s infrastructure.”
Qatar Energy Minister warns A war could lead to a complete shutdown of all Gulf energy exporters, “bringing down the world economy” and pushing oil prices to $150 a barrel. Saad Kaabi told the Financial Times: “We expect that all countries that have not called for force majeure will do so in the next few days. All exporters in the Gulf will have to call for force majeure.”
Dubai’s business community is furious. “Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran? On what basis did you make this dangerous decision?” Khalaf Al Habtoor, a billionaire hotel owner in Dubai, posted on the X website. “You are putting the GCC and Arab countries at the center of a danger they have no choice in.”
Analyst Ed Yardeni is having second thoughts: His team had thought the conflict would be short. “On Tuesday, we had a rethink about the duration of the war. The Iranian regime has prepared for war by adopting a chaotic strategy, launching missiles and drones not only at U.S. and Israeli targets, but also at its neighbors. That strategy includes shutting down all shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. By inflicting all this pain, the Iranian regime hopes to pressure its opponents and negotiate a ceasefire that will maintain the regime’s power.”
Anthropic has raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation and is preparing for an IPO, but investors are divided over how the company should respond to the Trump administration’s potentially disruptive move to designate it a “supply chain risk.” wealthJessica Matthews writes. She spoke with six of the company’s funders. JD Russell of Alpha Funds, one of the [but] You have to be realistic that America’s adversaries are pursuing these capabilities with far fewer constraints. “
‘Tarzai’
Target’s new CEO Michael Fiddelke gives exclusive interview wealthPhil Wahba explains how he’s going to turn around the struggling retailer. “We just need to have a clear understanding of who we are,” he said. “We haven’t always done the best job over the past few years.”
jack’s ax
Also exclusive wealth: Block CFO Amrita Ahuja explains to Sheryl Estrada the logic behind the company’s decision to lay off 4,000 people, nearly half its workforce.
Chart of the day
Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “Tax refunds for the year ended March 3 totaled $124 billion, up only about 10% from 2025 and well below the 25% to 30% growth we expect for this year’s tax refund season.” This means their impact on consumer spending will be lower than previously assumed.
Hollywood
There will be a bumper harvest at the box office (As long as the talent doesn’t strike): Alicia Reese and her colleagues at Wedbush said: “We expect box office to grow 10% year-over-year in 2026 to $9.5 billion…One caveat we need to pay attention to…is that this year’s SAG-AFTRA negotiations will touch on important topics in the field of artificial intelligence…There is a risk that the industry will strike again.”
Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets rates Schwarzenegger an “outperform”: “A lot of movies have been about artificial intelligence. The best of them is Terminator 2: Judgment Day. Although it was released in 1991, it covers an impressive range of relevant issues: the integration of artificial intelligence and defense, the risks of artificial general intelligence, and the importance of (really) advanced semiconductors. If you haven’t seen it, I would recommend it. Tell your partner, roommate, or boss it’s for work.”
this Estimated number of mines Iran has the capability to deploy in the Strait of Hormuz. Retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, said this was enough to paralyze shipping there.
Quick click
Today’s front page
British police arrest four people on suspicion of spying for Iran – Financial Times
U.S. offers India 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil as war with Iran heightens energy supply concerns – CNBC
How the ice finally broke for Kristi Noem – Axios
U.S. natural gas prices rise 11% in one week, putting pressure on Trump – New York Times
one more thing
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said: “We are not at war now. Four days later we had a very specific, clear mission.” The best response to this came from Sean Davis of The Federalist Papers: “This is not a war, unless it comes from a French theater, in which case it is just a pitched battle.”
