Indiana is seeking its first national title in school history, while Miami is trying to end a streak that dates back to 2001 without a title.
If the Hoosiers win, they will not only have one of the best seasons in modern college football history, but they will also extend their Big Ten title winning streak to three seasons after Michigan won in 2023 and Ohio State won a season ago. Meanwhile, Miami will complete an improbable run to the title as the Hurricanes become the final team in the 12-team field as the College Football Playoff Committee decides to move Miami above Notre Dame in the final rankings.
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Here’s everything you need to know about Monday night’s game.
National Championship Game: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami
Indiana (15-0): The Indians had a great playoff run. No team can do what Indiana has done in its first two games of the playoffs. Not only was the Hoosiers the only team in the 12-team playoff format to win after a first-round bye, but the Hoosiers also dominated. Indiana went 38-3 against the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl and 56-22 against the Ducks in the Peach Bowl, beating Alabama and Oregon State 94-25.
Throughout the season, the Pacers outscored their opponents by an average of 31.5 points per game. Only North Texas scores more points per game. Only Ohio State gives up fewer points per game.
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Miami (13-2): The Hurricanes have won seven straight after losing 26-20 in overtime to SMU. Only two of those wins came on a single possession — and both came in the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes defeated No. 7 Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round and then defeated No. 6 Ole Miss 31-27 in the Fiesta Bowl. In the interim, the Miami Heat turned the tide of the first half in a 24-14 win over Ohio State with the help of Keonte Scott’s pick-six.
No. 10 Miami will face No. 1 Indiana in the national championship game on Monday night. (Bruno Rubi/Yahoo Sports)
How QB stacks up
Carson Baker needs to be more like the quarterback he was against Mississippi State for the Hurricanes to have a chance.
Against the Rebels, Baker completed 23 of 37 passes for 268 yards, two passing touchdowns and an interception. Oh, and he also drove in the game-winning score with 18 seconds left.
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He had more total yards in the Fiesta Bowl than he had in his first two playoff games…combined. In the first round against Texas A&M and the Cotton Bowl against the Buckeyes, Baker completed 33 of 46 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns.
Miami is 12-0 in games where Baker has one or fewer interceptions, while the Heat are 1-2 when he has multiple picks. The lone win came against USF when he threw for 340 yards and three scores while throwing two interceptions and five incompletions.
Against Louisville, Baker threw four interceptions in the Hurricanes’ 21-24 loss. Two games later, Baker had two interceptions in a loss to the Broncos — including one on Miami’s overtime possession.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 41 touchdowns and six interceptions. Those six picks are spread over six games.
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Mendoza’s season was historic — and not just because he won the Heisman Trophy. In the Pacers’ two playoff victories, he completed 31 of 36 passes for 369 yards and eight touchdowns. Yes, he had five incompletions and eight touchdowns. In the Rose Bowl and Peach Bowl, Mendoza threw more touchdown passes than incomplete passes.
He has done so five times this season and has four touchdowns and four incompletions in another game. Nearly every quarterback has more incomplete passes than touchdown passes each week. That’s happened only 60 percent of the time for Mendoza this season.
Players to watch
Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr.: The junior has had a relatively quiet postseason. Cooper is Indiana’s leading receiver with 64 catches for 866 yards and 13 scores, but those numbers haven’t increased much over the past three games.
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After injuring his ankle and not catching a ball in the Big Ten championship game against Ohio State, Cooper had six catches for 62 yards and two scores in the College Football Playoff. To be fair, the Indians didn’t really need him. Indiana rushed for 400 yards and four scores in those games.
Cooper’s biggest moment of the season so far was his game-winning catch against Penn State. Whether the Indians end up winning the national championship or not, this catch will live on in highlight reels for a long time. We have a feeling Cooper will have a big game against the Hurricanes on Monday night.
Miami wide receiver Kieran Marion: The BYU transfer couldn’t have picked a better time for his second 100-yard game of the season at the Fiesta Bowl.
Marion had seven catches for 116 yards and one score in Miami’s win. Prior to the Fiesta Bowl, Marion’s only 100-yard game came against Syracuse. It was the only other game in which Marion scored a touchdown.
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Overall, Marion is Miami’s second-leading receiver behind Malachi Toney with 56 catches for 740 yards, but he has only scored two touchdowns all season. Toney will be the focal point of Indiana’s defense — just as he has been the focal point of Miami’s other opponents — and Miami will need another receiver to step up. Is it Marion or C.J. Daniels? TE Elija Lofton will miss this game after suffering an injury in the Fiesta Bowl.
The key to the game
Can Miami’s defensive line continue to be a dominant force in the playoffs? The Hurricanes have been able to beat opposing offensive lines so far, but Indiana’s offensive line is better than any Miami has faced in three postseason games. Indiana was able to beat Indiana and Oregon State despite Mendoza being sacked four times in those two games.
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Against Alabama, Indiana running backs Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby combined to rush 33 times for 188 yards and two scores. In the Fiesta Bowl, their totals were low — they rushed 29 times for 116 yards — but Black still scored two goals.
If Indiana can do what it did against Miami like it did against the Crimson Tide, the Hurricanes could be in trouble. Miami’s biggest playoff deficit came in the Fiesta Bowl when the Hurricanes trailed by four points early in the first quarter. What happens if Indiana leads by two points?
The Heat’s chances of an upset largely depend on Toney’s ability to break through. He had just 51 total yards of offense in the first two playoff games, but in the Fiesta Bowl he had five catches for 81 yards, a score and two carries for 11 yards. If Toney’s numbers were similar to those in the first two playoff games, Miami wouldn’t have won.
A win for Miami would also be the Hurricanes’ biggest loss since January 2003, when the Hurricanes lost the championship game by 11 points. But we are not optimistic about this happening. Even if Miami can pressure Mendoza, he’s the quarterback best equipped to overcome pressure by diagnosing the defense. We will lead Indiana to become the first team in 125 years to go 16-0 in the premier league of college football.
