Tim Reed
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Donald Trump has cast himself as the Republican Party’s chief emissary on cost-of-living issues in an election year, but a Reuters review of his speeches shows the president has repeatedly claimed that inflation has been defeated but rarely acknowledged the pressure that many Americans say they still feel.
Since December, Trump has claimed in five speeches on the economy that inflation has been defeated or dropped sharply by nearly 20 times and that prices have fallen by nearly 30 times. These claims are inconsistent with economic data and voters’ daily experience. Much of the rest of the day was spent on grievances and other issues, including immigration, whether Somalia is a country and attacks on opponents.
Taken together, the speeches painted a picture of a president struggling to reconcile his core claim that he has solved the cost-of-living crisis with inflation approaching 3% over the past year and the lived experience of voters paying more for grocery staples. For example, the price of ground beef has increased 18% since Trump took office a year ago, while the price of ground coffee has increased 29%.
Republican strategists told Reuters that his mixed messages on issues that matter most to voters could create a credibility gap between him and the party ahead of the November midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake. Polls show voters are deeply dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy.
“He cannot continue to make claims that are patently false, especially at the expense of Republicans in competitive House districts or Senate races,” said Republican strategist Rob Godfrey, adding that Trump “must be disciplined and focused.”
A source close to the White House said the president needs to work harder to address affordability issues by personally visiting key areas.
“He needs to get this message across because it’s not resonating,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the issue more freely.
White House spokesman Khush Desai said Trump’s focus on illegal immigration in his speech was directly related to his argument that illegal immigration has a negative impact on the country’s economy. Desai said this has resulted in “overburdened public services, disruption of business activities due to crime, flooding of the real estate market and lower wages for workers”.
Desai added that Trump has repeatedly emphasized that there is still much work to be done to clean up the economic mess he says was left to him by his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden.
Trump drops message on immigration
A Reuters analysis found that Trump spent nearly half of his speech expressing dissatisfaction and other issues without declaring that inflation had been defeated.
A Reuters review found that he spent about two hours of his roughly five-hour speech talking about about 20 non-price-related topics. When he changed the subject, his biggest concern was illegal immigration, which he spent about 30 to 40 minutes talking about in total.
In his speech, he insulted Minnesota’s Somali Americans, who voted against him in the 2024 election. He called Somalia “not even a country” and disparaged Somali-born Minnesota congresswoman Ilhan Omar in four speeches.
Omar is a progressive, high-profile Democrat and Muslim who has frequently criticized Trump, especially on his immigration policies.
“Whenever the president of the United States chooses to use hateful rhetoric about me and the community I represent, my death threats skyrocket,” Omar said last month, a day after a man sprayed her with a foul-smelling liquid at a town hall event.
Trump also touched on men in women’s sports, Venezuela, Iran, the Islamic State militant group, Greenland, Ukraine and Russia, the military draft, his false claims that the 2020 election was rigged, U.S. weapons, his exaggerated claims to have ended eight wars, and even how much Fox News anchors like him.
Trump worries twists and turns for strategist
On January 27, Trump said in a speech in Iowa, “Inflation has stopped. Incomes are up. Prices are down.”
Only twice in five speeches did Trump acknowledge that prices were still too high, but he blamed Biden for that. Trump was elected in 2024 because of voters dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of inflation (which soared above 9% in 2022) and illegal immigration.
On December 9, Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania that Democrats were causing prices to be “too high.” “But now prices are coming down.”
In the same speech, he called the term “affordability” a Democratic “hoax.” After public backlash, he stopped saying that in recent speeches.
A Reuters review found that in four speeches, Trump repeatedly and haphazardly changed the subject, usually when he was talking about the economy.
Four Republican strategists interviewed by Reuters said Trump’s meandering style, which he proudly calls “weaving,” risks drowning out his core economic argument that he has lowered inflation and prices.
On January 21, Trump addressed world leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He spent the first 22 minutes talking about this topic, then suddenly spent the next 22 minutes insulting Europeans, saying that without the United States, they would speak German, calling NATO ungrateful, and denouncing the “dishonest” media, before returning to the U.S. economy.
Republican strategist Doug Heyer said voters want to hear what Trump is doing to reduce costs. “But they don’t remember what Trump said on economic issues because of the volume of his own rhetoric.”
A source familiar with White House thinking said Trump may use his State of the Union address on February 24 as the start of more intensive domestic travel to amplify his message on affordability.
Trump does offer solutions
For many Americans, the economic situation remains grim. Although inflation has fallen slightly from 3% to 2.7% since Trump took office, prices remain high. Economists stress that lower inflation does not mean prices are falling, just that they are growing more slowly.
Food costs rose more than 3% in the 12 months to December 2025, while average hourly earnings increased just 1.1% year-over-year. Government data showed the unemployment rate was 4.4% in December, up from 4% in January 2025 when Trump took office.
In some speeches, Trump rightly pointed to falling prices for some everyday items, including eggs and natural gas. Egg prices fell about 21% year over year in December, after rising 60% in the first few months after Trump returned to office. Natural gas prices have fallen about 4% since January last year.
But the cost of the average shopping basket has risen. Prices for coffee, beef and some fruits, among other items, increased last year.
Trump did lay out solutions in his speech, including tax cuts that began last month that will bring greater savings to tens of millions of families; eliminating taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security; his plan to lower mortgage rates; proposals to lower home prices; and a deal with health insurance companies to lower drug prices.
Most economists expect U.S. households and the broader economy to benefit from the tax cuts in the coming months. But some economists told Reuters Trump’s latest proposals are unlikely to have a significant impact on the cost of living between now and November. Some economists warn that one of Trump’s ideas – capping credit card interest rates at 10% for a year – could even be counterproductive because it could limit access to credit for low-income households.
Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which supports House candidates, said Trump and Republicans are helping working families. “Voters see this stark contrast and the best is yet to come.”
About 35% of Americans approve of Trump’s overall handling of the economy, according to a Jan. 25 Reuters/Ipsos poll, up slightly from 33% in December. But that’s well below his initial 42% approval rating on the issue when he took office a year ago.
Falling into the Biden Trap
Former economic officials from previous administrations say Trump is falling into the same trap that Biden encountered in 2024 in the face of persistently high inflation.
Biden has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. economy is strong and urged voters to pay attention to other economic data. The strategy failed miserably, and Democrats were punished in the polls.
Officials agree it’s important, especially in an election year, for the president to show voters he understands their economic pain.
“We do have conversations with people in the past about inflation,” Jared Bernstein, chairman of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview.
“We usually say, ‘A new jobs report just came out and it’s very strong,’ and that’s all true. But the fact is, there’s not much we can do in terms of price levels.”
(Reporting by Tim Reed in Washington. Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal, Trevor Hunnicutt and Dan Burns; Editing by Ross Colvin and Deepa Babington)
