Idaho is in a severe snow drought, experts say. Here’s why and what to expect

Warm winter weather in Idaho brought one of the worst snow droughts in the state’s history.

David Hoekema, a hydrologist with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, said the record high temperatures during the winter were accompanied by “a lot of precipitation.”

Hoekma told the Idaho Statesman that the Gem State has seen unexpectedly large amounts of rain and unseasonably low snowfall amounts so far this season.

This prompted experts to declare a snow drought, which occurs when an area’s snow water equivalent (the amount of liquid water contained in snow) is at or below 20% of the historical average.

What this means for Idaho residents:

How does 2026 compare to the worst drought in Idaho’s history?

Weather conditions in Idaho in 2026 will be comparable to severe drought years in 1977 and 2015, according to one expert.

In 1977, a drought in the West caused wells to run dry as early as April and reservoir levels to reach record lows, the Idaho Statesman reported at the time.

“Significant economic damage and human suffering” prompted President Jimmy Carter to sign the Emergency Drought Act into law.

In 2015, low snowpack and early runoff plunged all of Idaho into drought.

“This year’s conditions are very different from 2015, with heavy precipitation and strong high-altitude snowpack,” Hoekma told the Statesman. “This year is a combination of 2015, which was hot and dry, and 1977, which had probably the lowest snowpack in our lifetime.”

Idaho also experienced extreme drought in 2021 and 2022.

How bad is the drought in Idaho?

About 95% of Idaho was “abnormally dry” or worse as of February 17, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Nearly 62% of the state is experiencing “severe drought” and about 9% of severe areas are in “extreme” drought, the Drought Monitor said, adding that the drought could lead to reduced crop yields, water shortages and “elevated” risks of wildfires.

The Drought Monitor says a total of 836,524 people in Idaho are living in drought conditions.

Parts of the Gem State have been affected by some degree of drought since December 2019, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Snowpack in Pacific Northwest ‘well below normal’

Historically, January 10 to February 14 is the period of fastest snowpack growth in the Pacific Northwest, including Idaho.

During 2026, the Pacific Northwest experienced its warmest period on record, especially at higher elevations, said Larry O’Neill, a climatologist with the National Integrated Drought Information System in Oregon.

“A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure developed in January 2026, diverting storms away from the Pacific Northwest and causing a strong temperature inversion,” O’Neill told the National Integrated Drought Information System conference on Monday. “Mountain snowpack in nearly every basin in the Pacific Northwest is well below normal.”

However, snowpack remains strong in some of Idaho’s higher elevation mountains.

“Last week, the Upper Snake (river) was following climate change and the Big Lost (river) was almost completely covered in snow,” Hoekma told the Statesman in an email.

Can spring rains reduce the effects of drought?

A wet spring can only reduce the lasting effects of snow droughts, not end them, Hoekma said.

With enough precipitation in the coming months, the upper Snake River may receive enough water to “minimize drought impacts on the Boise and Payette rivers,” Hoekma said.

Even with more spring precipitation, extreme drought conditions are expected along Idaho’s southern border.

The Bruneau, Owyhee and Weiser river watersheds “will not recover from drought this year,” Hoekma said, nor will the Goose Creek and Salmon Falls Creek reservoir watersheds in south-central Idaho.

The hydrologists added that there is only a 10 percent chance of recovery in the Payette and Boise river basins.

“A wet spring or cool summer can significantly reduce shortages,” Hoekma said. “A hot, dry spring and summer could lead to severe shortages.”

Will drought affect crops? Wildfire?

“Our biggest concern right now is the severity of water shortages,” Hoekma said.

Drought can have a significant impact on irrigation, which in turn impacts Idaho’s agriculture and residents. In past drought years, irrigation districts cut off water early or urged water users to implement watering schedules to limit water use.

Idaho Water Users Association officials have told the Statesman in the past that in anticipation of water shortages, farmers will plant fewer crops in dry years or may choose crops that are less profitable and less water intensive.

Drought conditions also affect wildfire conditions, as dry vegetation can become the primary fuel for fast-moving fires.

It’s too early for fire officials to predict how current drought conditions might affect the upcoming fire season, said Sarah Arledge, a spokesperson for the Idaho Land Bureau. The agency is responsible for fire suppression on state-donated land.

The National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, which coordinates wildfire response across multiple federal agencies, has “significant wildfire potential” maps and provides forecasts through May.

While maps from the National Interagency Fire Center show significant fire potential in other drought-stricken areas like Florida and Texas, Idaho has not been flagged as likely to have major wildfires in May.

Snowmelt in Idaho typically peaks around the same time fire season begins.

“Snowmelt typically starts slowly in March, accelerates in April, and then peaks in May or June, depending on the basin’s elevation and spring temperatures,” Hoekma said.

The timing of Idaho’s typical snowmelt pattern may change this year.

“With low-elevation snowpack largely gone, we may see a slowdown in runoff growth,” the hydrologists said. “The timing will depend on spring temperatures.”

Is drought a regional problem?

Idaho isn’t the only state experiencing a snow drought, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.

Jason Gerlich, regional drought information coordinator for the National Integrated Drought Information System, said at a Feb. 10 meeting that the Pacific Northwest, including Idaho, Oregon and Washington state, is facing a severe snow drought.

“Critical water supply basins such as the Willamette, Deschutes, Yakima, Boise and Spokane rivers also experienced severe snow droughts,” Gerrich said.

Can we expect droughts to continue in the future?

“We’re seeing a warming trend,” Hoekma said.

As temperatures rise, Hoekma told the Statesman that “droughts will intensify as long as the climate continues to warm.”

“Warm winters reduce snowpack, and warm summers increase demand,” Hoekma said.