How will Caleb Wilson’s season-ending injury impact his NBA draft stock?

Caleb Wilson is done. The 19-year-old freshman suffered a broken right thumb and is about to undergo surgery, meaning the most physically gifted freshman in this draft will not be able to experience March Madness. The timing is cruel. Wilson, who broke his left hand in early February, will return ahead of this weekend’s game between North Carolina and Duke. Instead, he will watch the game from the bench.

This is obviously a blow to the Tar Heels. Wilson went head-to-head with potential top-three draft pick Cam Boozer in the first game. North Carolina has a net rating of +16.3 when Wilson is on the floor all season, according to CBB Analytics. Without him, their national championship hopes might be dashed.

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But from a draft perspective, Wilson has given NBA teams a full understanding of what kind of rookie he is.

Wilson led the nation in dunks the first time he broke his hand. At 6-foot-10, he has the explosiveness of a pogo stick, a quick second jump for return chances, and the fluidity to outrun anyone on the court.

For Wilson, that bounce was all over the floor. He had double-doubles against Boozer’s Duke and Darien Peterson’s Kansas — and he averaged 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds nearly all year. In addition, he also contributed 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks.

He combines the lateral mobility to defend the perimeter with the length to change shots inside. This will give Wilson the versatility at the next level to fill different defensive roles depending on what his team needs from him. With those skills, Wilson could be compared to the two most recent Defensive Player of the Year winners, Jaren Jackson Jr. or Evan Mobley.

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But Wilson was drafted fourth instead of first because of his jump shot. According to Synergy Sports, he shot just 26.1 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers and 34.6 percent on dribble jumpers. His 71.3% free throw shooting isn’t disastrous, and he’s had some solid games, like against Duke in February and Kansas in November. But it would be nice to see some consistency on the outside of the paint.

If Wilson does find his shot, his ceiling will increase to the point where he could end up being the best player in the class. Because he’s not just a running dunk athlete. Wilson’s ball-handling ability is what’s most noticeable about him in empty-court games. In an early-season game against Michigan State, he caught a loose ball, drove half-court, dribbled hesitantly, then drove to his left before dunking with a poster.

Wilson’s playmaking ability is also an asset. Averaging 2.7 assists per game, he has shown real high-post touch to find cutters and spot-up shooters. At the very least, teams will be able to feel confident in his ability to emerge from dribble handoffs as a connecting piece.

But without the threat of a jump shot, those playmaking skills and Giannis-esque breakout moments would be short-lived.

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He definitely needs to get stronger if he doesn’t want to make defenders sweat with outside shots. He’s only 215 pounds. He can’t overpower opponents driving to the rim. Defensively, NBA big men will try to bury him until he adds functional strength.

Concerns about Wilson didn’t go away in March. It could take him years to gain muscle and master his jump shot, if he does that at all. But now, after surgery on his right thumb, lifting and shooting will have to wait until he’s fully recovered.

NBA executives believe Wilson is unlikely to move past Boozer or BYU forward AJ Dybansta on the board, leaving Peterson to control his own destiny. But due to missing time, he was easily passed. Because it was the tape that was lost. In March, when the competition heats up and the pressure mounts, teams will see other rookies prove themselves.

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NBA teams won’t get the chance to see Wilson on the biggest stage. And so, the college evaluation ends after 24 games, two broken hands, and a season that feels like it’s only just begun.