The video is grainy, but there’s no doubt about it: U.S. Marines fast-roping from a Black Hawk helicopter to the deck of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.
The seizure of the ship, one of Caracas’s sanctioned “ghost ships” illegally transporting crude oil, was a prelude to Donald Trump’s second move to oust Nicolas Maduro.
Within days, the U.S. president announced a sweeping naval blockade aimed at cutting off the Venezuelan president’s economic lifeline and forcing his loyal inner circle to oust him.
“Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada in South American history,” Trump declared on Tuesday. “It’s only going to get bigger and it’s going to hit them like nothing they’ve ever seen before.”
Industry insiders see the move as a creative new calculation aimed at starving Maduro’s government, whose survival depends on selling crude oil overseas, while forcing his allies in Moscow and Beijing to abandon him.
“The White House is committed to opposing the Maduro regime and overthrowing Maduro,” a source close to the administration said.
Image source: X/@AGPamBondi
That’s the plan behind Trump’s unprecedented blockade and the White House’s campaign to remove Venezuela’s global influence.
Maduro, who sits in the presidential office at Miraflores Palace, relies on exports from Venezuela’s vast oil reserves to prop up his country.
Under his rule, there are more crude oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, Russia or the United States, and the mineral, known as “liquid gold,” accounts for about 88% of Venezuela’s $24 billion in exports.
Mr Trump has been trying to prevent this since 2019.
During his first term, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA and threatened secondary sanctions against any entity doing business with it.
To solve the problem, Maduro’s government has turned to a secretive “Dark Fleet” of tankers to evade sanctions and keep oil flowing to buyers in China, Russia and Cuba.
Hundreds of aging tankers now smuggle sanctioned oil and become Caracas’s financial lifeline. As of the end of November, more than 30 of the 80 ships in Venezuelan waters or close to the country were subject to U.S. sanctions.
This is a growing phenomenon. Financial intelligence firm S&P Global estimates that one in five tankers worldwide is used to smuggle oil from sanctioned countries.
This strategy appears to be working. Despite international pressure, oil exports rose to about 921,000 barrels per day in November, the third-highest monthly average so far this year.
By seizing the ships, the Trump administration is seeking to cut off Mr. Maduro’s main source of revenue that keeps his regime afloat while tightening the economic noose.
“What they’re doing is essentially trying to cut off any remaining source of revenue for the government, trying to force a regime change,” said Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow on Latin America at Chatham House.
The White House aims to isolate Maduro’s government by curbing oil revenues, forcing him to resign or sparking an uprising among disgruntled allies.
In fact, experts believe the seizure of the tanker was Trump’s final act in a chapter of maximum pressure that began with sanctions years ago.
“The regime has long used revenue from oil as a tool to buy influence within the military and maintain the little oil the government can produce,” explained Andres Martinez Fernandez, senior policy analyst for Latin America at the Allison Center for National Security.
“This will soon bring new levels of instability within Venezuela and its regime.”
Convert allies
Relations between Washington and Caracas are at their lowest point. The United States and many of its allies view Mr Maduro, who is currently serving a controversial third term, as a dictator.
Yet Mr Maduro has built a network of loyal military commanders and international allies that have kept his rule afloat thanks to Venezuela’s oil exports.
None of them is more important than China, which is the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, accounting for about 80% of Venezuelan oil exports. Approximately 746,000 barrels of oil are imported per day.
Beijing is not importing the oil commercially, but as debt repayment for the roughly $60 billion in loans it has pumped into Venezuelan oil projects.
A reimbursement agreement is beneficial to both parties. Beijing secured oil supplies, while Maduro gained time and friends on the international stage.
With a fleet of ghost tankers halted from arriving at Beijing ports, the blockade now threatens to damage relations and pit China against Maduro.
If Venezuelan oil can no longer be delivered reliably, Maduro ceases to be an asset to China and becomes a legal liability that China seeks to repay.
“As soon as goods stop arriving at foreign ports, debts will start to be collected. This will have an immediate impact. If these payments don’t start coming in, the physical infrastructure will soon start to crumble,” Mr Martinez-Fernandez explained.
“China might say, ‘We’d better get rid of this headache and get rid of Maduro and then continue to provide any kind of active support.'”
AFP: Venezuelan President Maduro could become a burden for Beijing
Beijing has shown little sympathy for similar situations in the past. In Africa and Central Asia, the country has repeatedly distanced itself from leaders it no longer views as reliable partners.
For Trump, the blockade is another step in his plan, known by insiders as the “Dongluo Doctrine,” to eliminate Chinese influence in America’s backyard.
The Heritage Foundation’s “Plan 2025” has long been considered the blueprint for his second term, which it calls “rehemisphericization.” It calls for the capture of the region’s supply chains as a requirement for U.S. economic security.
In this sense, the purpose of the blockade is not to confront China head-on, but to make Maduro persona non grata. If the oil-for-debt deal fails, Beijing may consider changing horses and ditching him.
Also among the targets is Havana, which has long relied on Venezuelan oil subsidies.
Cuba has been the subject of a U.S. blockade and receives about 24,000 barrels a day of crude oil, gasoline and jet fuel from the regime.
Donald Trump’s blockade is part of plan insiders call ‘Donro Doctrine’ – Reuters
Sabatini said the blockade would be “catastrophic” for U.S. arch-rival Cuba and estimated exports would plummet.
“This is a moment for people like Marco Rubio [the secretary of state] Cuban-American hardliners living in Florida have been waiting,” he said.
“They’re trying to starve the government. And by doing that, they’re actually starving the people.”
While China has poured millions of dollars into Venezuelan oil projects, Russia has been a key driver behind the scenes.
Russia-linked “Dark Fleet” tankers also help Maduro avoid sanctions by transporting oil around the world. However, Putin, who has tried to curry favor with Trump since his return to the Oval Office, could change the ship and further isolate Maduro.
In fact, there are already signs of Moscow’s changing position. Reports in late November suggested that Russia had begun evacuating its citizens from the region.
Experts agree that Trump is trying to squeeze Maduro economically while testing the resolve of his few remaining allies in the hope they will turn against him.
“This does appear to be another way for the administration to increase pressure on the Maduro government,” said Brian Finucane, a former State Department lawyer who is now a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.
war
The Armada, the largest U.S. military presence in the region in decades, began with a series of attacks on ships that the Trump administration claimed were transporting illegal drugs to the United States.
For months, the U.S. military has launched deadly attacks on small vessels traveling through international waters under the guise of counter-narcotics operations.
Since early September, the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard have destroyed about 20 ships, killing more than 90 people.
Image source: U.S. Army
Eight warships, including three destroyers, three amphibious assault ships, a cruiser and a smaller littoral combat ship, make up the largest U.S. military presence in the region in decades.
They will be joined by a squadron of F-35B Lightning II jets and a number of Reaper drones, which are capable of flying long distances and carrying up to eight laser-guided missiles. B-2 bombers were also spotted flying near the coast.
This has led many Venezuelans and many Americans to believe that Trump is preparing for war.
Insiders say the blockade is one of smaller military escalations the president has been considering with his cabinet in recent weeks.
Instead, they hope to turn the cartels that military officials say are complicit in smuggling fentanyl into the United States against their leaders by choking the cash flow used to fund them.
For the armed forces, oil revenue is the glue that keeps the system intact. The generals control ports, customs and fuel distribution, making the military the backbone of Maduro’s power.
As long as Mr Maduro can afford to pay his generals, their unfettered loyalty and his regime will continue.
US Navy Boeing EA-18G Growler in Puerto Rico on Wednesday – AFP
The same logic applies to Mr. Maduro’s alleged ties to organized crime. The groups rely on ports and money-laundering routes, all sustained by cash generated from oil sales.
“This does not yet allow us to enter Venezuelan territory and conduct military strikes. We are still discussing operations in international waters,” Martinez-Fernandez said.
The formation of the Armada, coupled with Trump’s continued threats of land strikes, has experts viewing the blockade as part of a slide toward conflict.
Senior military officials are said to have presented the U.S. president with options for military intervention in the region, including ground strikes. Other options reportedly being developed by the Pentagon include direct attacks on Maduro’s security personnel or operations to seize the country’s oil fields.
In every proposal, Trump is said to have opposed ideas that could put U.S. troops at risk or could lead to embarrassing defeats.
Trump and his cabinet have come to view the blockade as a necessary intervention to reclaim “American oil.”
So what’s stopping him? Perhaps it’s his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize and the potential backlash from his “America First” base if he starts a war.
What happens next will be determined by Trump’s lockdown. If the oil keeps flowing, Mr Maduro can survive.
But if it stops, China may decide the debt is not worth collecting, and his cash-strapped lieutenants may turn against him.
Washington’s gamble is simple; regimes do not fall when attacked, but when abandoned.
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