Gazans in Deir al-Balah will vote for a new local leader on Saturday for the first time in two years, a move experts warn could leave room for Hamas to maintain influence as it refuses to abide by the disarmament terms of the ceasefire.
“When the Palestinian Authority holds elections and the timing is wrong and the situation remains unstable, Hamas will prevail,” Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
Schanzer said the Bush administration’s decision to call for elections in 2006 “led to victory for Hamas and led to stalemate and ultimately civil war.”
Schanzer added: “You have to be very careful especially when holding elections in an area like Gaza, where Hamas has a lot of control and where the terrorist group is still considered a legitimate actor.”
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Campaign banners displaying candidates for the upcoming municipal elections hang from a building in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, April 21, 2026.
(Getty Images)
Four political parties are contesting elections in Deir al-Balah. In order to qualify, candidates were required to accept the terms of the Palestine Liberation Organization and its previous agreements, including recognition of the state of Israel and support for a two-state solution, according to the Peace Communications Center report.
However, many fear that the Deir al-Balah Unites Us political party is affiliated with Hamas. Two of the candidates were photographed posing with Hamas officials or police.
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, posted on
“These elections should be stopped and prevented from taking place because they are interfering with the transition process of the Peace Council, [National Council for the Administration of Gaza]the international community has developed a plan for Gaza, and Hamas disarming and giving up power is the first necessary step. “
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Disarmament of Hamas, a key requirement in the second phase of President Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal, has not yet been completed. Reports show that as of March, Hamas increased its control over Gaza, continuing to tax locals, build an education system and deploy police throughout the territory it controls.
Hamas terrorists stand guard in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, on February 22, 2025, handing over hostages as part of a ceasefire and hostage prisoner exchange agreement with Israel.
Schanzer said Hamas was unlikely to hand over its weapons. If they do, he said, they “will try to differentiate their weapons,” possibly abandoning heavy weapons such as rockets while retaining a large number of automatic weapons.
Hamas appears to have proposed partial disarmament. The New York Times reported on April 19 that two Hamas officials said they would hand over thousands of weapons from police forces and other security agencies. Officials “did not provide a clear answer” when asked whether weapons from Hamas’ so-called military wing were included.
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President Donald Trump holds up the signed agreement at a summit of world leaders aimed at ending the war in Gaza on October 13 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
Schanzer rejected suggestions that Hamas’s political and military wings operate separately.
“That is a fiction. The idea that they are in any way separated or that there is a firewall between them is foolish.” He said it was a “distinction the West made in order to be able to have political relations with Hamas or justify elections. It is a mistake to believe in that fiction.”
Schanzer said weakening Iran could be key to reducing Hamas’ influence.
“The psychological impact of their supreme patron being defeated on the battlefield, I cannot overstate the significance of this event,” he said. “This will be a heavy blow to Hamas.”
As part of local elections scheduled for April 25, the municipality of Gaza Deir al-Balah will begin campaigning on April 12, 2026.
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Schanzer said that Israel controls about 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas controls the remaining 47%. “As Israel slowly and steadily wins local victories, we may continue to see the erosion of Hamas’s control.”
Still, he said patience was necessary, adding, “The enemies of the United States, Israel and the West have a very different timetable. They want to wait for everyone because they know we want to move on.”
The Trump administration did not respond to a question from Fox News Digital about whether partial disarmament would satisfy the terms of the ceasefire or whether it would move to delay elections until Gaza is more stable.
Original source of the article: Hamas influence on Gaza elections looms, experts warn vote could backfire
