Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode warned on Monday that XRP’s on-chain market structure reflects the exact cost base configuration observed ahead of a 60% price plunge in 2022.
XRP is trading at $1.91, down 4.74% in the past 24 hours.
Source: TradingView
The signal is centered on the cost to the holder. Wallets that were active in the 1 week to 1 month window are now accumulating below realized prices in the 6 month to 12 month window. New buyers are holding on to cheaper entry points, while medium-term holders are underwater or close to breakeven.
This relationship creates indirect supply. When spot prices approach the cost basis of the mid-term group, the group will rush to reduce risk and enter any rally. February 2022 showed the results: XRP rose from $0.60 to $0.88 in the first week, then plummeted 60% to $0.30 by mid-year following the Terra implosion and broader macro deterioration.
Glassnode identifies $2.00 as a level above technical levels. According to the firm’s November 2025 analysis, each retest of $2 has triggered weekly realized losses of $500 million to $1.2 billion since the start of 2025. Holders have been yielding to strength in this area.
XRP broke through $2.40 in early January, rising 25% in a week. It has since fallen back below $2.00. The pattern is familiar. The coin is currently trading below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.
Positive signs are there. Since its launch in November 2025, the XRP ETF has absorbed a cumulative inflow of $1.37 billion, without a single outflow for 35 consecutive trading days, followed by a modest redemption of $40.8 million on January 7. The total assets under management are close to US$2 billion, with more than 788 million XRP locked.
Foreign exchange reserves fell from 3.76 billion XRP in early October 2025 to approximately 1.6 billion XRP at the end of December, the lowest level since 2018. ETF creation requires spot purchases, which removes tokens from available circulation.
However, the inflows did not stop the pullback. XRP fell 15% in December despite record institutional buying. Exchange balance data shows that 206 million XRP (approximately $430 million) has been transferred to the platform since January, which indicates the distribution situation.
The February 2022 analogy raises a specific question: Can ETF-driven supply absorption offset the capitulation mechanism described by Glassnode? At that time, there were no spot ETF products. Retail investors collapsed under macro pressure, and there were no institutions bidding to absorb the supply.
This cycle is structurally different. Five major issuers (Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares) serve pension funds and endowments. Their continued accumulation has tightened the circulating supply, with approximately 500 million XRP locked for every $1 billion inflows. But the gap between the medium-term and short-term cost bases remains.
