After last night’s victory in Edmonton, the Devils completed a rare sweep of their opponents and currently sit in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division with a 26-22-2 record and 54 points. Technically, one could argue they’re tied with Philadelphia and Washington, but the Flyers still have two games in hand and the Capitals hold the tiebreaker in regulation, so I think the sixth-place ranking is accurate.
Much has been written on this site about what this team is not. They’re not real competitors because they don’t do X, Y, and Z well. They’re not a true contender because they can’t beat Carolina. They’re not big enough, strong enough, fast enough, talented enough, or mentally tough enough. For this group, many of the criticisms are valid complaints.
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But what is this team? Who do they want to be when they are at their best?
The Devils are a team that can’t score
You can use any metric you choose, but the bottom line is… the Devils simply aren’t good enough at putting the puck in the net.
They rank 28th in goals scored, 29th in goals per game, 15th in offensive efficiency, and 32nd in field goal percentage. They rank 22nd in expected goals per 60 games at 5v5 and 32nd in goals above expected. According to Moneypuck, they still rank 32nd in rebounding percentage despite being middling.
I always say that the best players have to be the best players to ultimately improve the level of the entire team. Unfortunately, the Devils’ best player hasn’t quite been up to the task this season.
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Jesper Blatt has scored 7 goals in his last 43 games. Jack Hughes has scored zero goals in his last 14 games since returning from a hand injury. Timo Meier has five goals in 22 games since Thanksgiving. Dougie Hamilton may have improved in terms of assists, but he has only scored one goal in his past 35 games. Even Nico Hischier, the team’s leading scorer, basically scored 0 points for most of December.
Here are the five highest-paid players on the team. These people are expected to drive the bus for the rest of the team. The fact that they don’t give the Devils enough offense is a big reason why the Devils are where they are right now.
Players like Ondrej Palat, Luke Glendening and Juho Lammikko have received a lot of criticism for their poor performances. That’s fine, but they’re not the Devils’ best players (even though Pratt makes the same salary as the Devils). The Devils just need more from their best players. All people.
The devil does defend. sometimes.
Sheldon Keefe mentioned after last night’s win that from a defensive checking standpoint, the first two quarters against Edmonton were about as good as the Devils have been in a long time, or even all season.
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I don’t necessarily disagree with that. The fact that the Devils held the Oilers to just ten shots over two periods is a testament to their defensive prowess.
That is, that’s it, and then there was the third period last night when they were more or less hanging on for dear life and asking their goaltender, in this case Jake Allen, to win the game for them.
The Devils rank ninth in blocks allowed in 5v5 games, which is all good in the sense that you need players who are willing to get in the lane and do what’s necessary to stop the other team from getting on the scoreboard. But it also sucks in the sense that you don’t want to be a team that gets bombed. You don’t want to raise a turtle. You don’t want to give in. Especially when you’re third in the league in high-danger shots at 5v5, like the Devils are.
With Jacob Markstrom receiving so much criticism this season, and rightfully so, the Devils could make things easier for him and Jake Allen. A good start would be like in the first two games last night in Edmonton where they didn’t allow their opponents to do anything with the puck. This really starts with a good pre-inspection.
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Some might say this is boring hockey, but given the Devils’ offensive woes, they could use more boring hockey.
The devil does have a tough side that I admire
One of my guilty pleasures this season is whenever the Devils post praise for the boys on social media after a Sheldon Keefe win. It’s probably mostly a cliché that the team wouldn’t put something out there that they don’t like for the public to see, but when you get a chance to peek inside a room, you’ll appreciate it.
If there’s a common theme in these speeches, it’s usually how the team grinds or fights, or whatever buzzword Keef is using on any given night.
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I do appreciate that the Devils seem to have that quality. For all the talk about being able to play “playoff style” hockey, it really is needed once you get there.
I just hope the Devils don’t have to grind as much as they did during the regular season.
For example, of the Devils’ past 13 wins, only three have been by multiple goals. A 5-0 win over Buffalo the day after Thanksgiving, a 4-1 win over Anaheim and a 5-2 win at Minnesota last week.
To borrow a gambling term, nearly every Devils win is a “sweat,” and that’s no mean feat. This goes back to what I said about their inability to score. Is that too much to ask for this team that has won a lot of games 4-1 without us being on the edge of our seats the entire time?
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With Brett Pace back, Devils hit what looks like a good penalty kill
If one took a quick look at the statistics, they would just assume that the 20th-ranked Devils (78% penalty kill percentage) are mediocre at best and teetering on the wrong side of the ball in a not-so-good direction.
I dug into the numbers a few weeks ago when I said I was cautiously optimistic about the Devils, but to quickly recap, the Devils shot 90 percent from the line before Pesche’s injury and 66.6 percent from the line during his absence. Since Pesse’s return on Dec. 17, the Devils have killed 30 of 36 penalties (83.3 percent).
It’s no surprise that the Devils might have a top-five penalty-killing lineup if Pace hadn’t been injured. But when the team went 10-13-1 without him, the goals they allowed in shootouts added up. Conversely, the Devils are 16-9-1 with Brett Pace on the bench.
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I don’t want to overestimate Pace’s contributions, but he’s clearly a big part of the Devils’ roster and is better with him than without him.
final thoughts
Fifty games in, I think the Devils want to be a team that wins because of defense and goaltending. If those who are paid to put the puck in the net do their part and put the puck in the net, they could actually be potentially dangerous.
I think you’re walking a tightrope trying to win this way.
First, if teams can score goals more consistently, there will be less room for error. Yes, there are some playoff games where you need to win 2-1, but there are also a lot of playoff games where you need to be able to score four, five or even six goals consistently. From Florida to Vegas, from Colorado to Tampa Bay, all recent Cup winners have been able to do this. They pound teams in the playoffs, and they do so consistently.
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The Devils have scored five goals in a game twice since Thanksgiving…the aforementioned games in Buffalo and Minnesota.
Now, can the Devils get back to that type of team? Maybe. They have shown their scoring ability and defensive ability in their 8-game winning streak. I don’t think you necessarily lose that ability overnight, although one could argue they took advantage of some sleepwalking at the beginning of the season.
Maybe that’s the case, but now that we’re in the dog days of summer (or winter, whatever, you know what I’m trying to say), why can’t they get back to that?
Clearly, the Devils need more high-end talent. Hopefully Tom Fitzgerald finds a way to add some. But they also need high-end domestic talent to function. Until they do that, this team is a fringe playoff team at best.
