Fantasy Football: DFS lineup targets and fades for the NFL divisional round

The regular fantasy football season is over, but we can still have some fun with Yahoo DFS in the divisional rounds of the playoffs. Here are the traffic police reports for four races – please note that some races do not have yellow or red light designations as they are not necessary.

[Join a DFS contest for the divisional round]

bill of the broncos

green light

Quarterback Josh Allen ($40): He solved this defensive problem in the playoffs last year (135.4 points), and Allen’s rushing efficiency every week is almost automatic. Allen won’t repeat as MVP in 2024, but he’s still the best player in the playoffs.

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RB RJ Harvey ($22): The Broncos leaned toward Harvey over the final two games, allowing him to touch the ball 35 times. Buffalo’s run defense has been porous all season, and Harvey has been a consistent touchdown scorer all season long, even before his role upgraded.

yellow light

WR Blanding Cooks ($13): Injuries forced the Bills to exceed expectations against Cooks, and he helped in Jacksonville’s comeback (3-58-0, five goals). Cook has a reasonable chance to tie the game at 7-9 in Denver.

49ers play Seahawks

green light

RB Zach Charbonnet ($24): He’s $4 more expensive than running mate Kenneth Walker III, but the upgrade may be worth it. Charbonnet had a lower YPC than Walker, but had a higher success rate, and Charbonnet also got more goal line work, scoring 12 touchdowns compared to Walker’s five. No matter which side you lean toward, rest assured that they both performed well in their Week 18 win over the 49ers.

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yellow light

RB Christian McCaffrey ($40): The rushing efficiency has declined, and it’s impossible to ignore how poorly the Niners performed against Seattle two weeks ago. But McCaffrey may already have six or more catches in his back pocket, and double-digit catches could come into play if the 49ers fall behind.

TE AJ Barner ($10): If your lineup needs a kick somewhere, Barner might make sense. He found a way to score seven touchdowns in 2025 and get the occasional rushing opportunity as a short-yardage specialist. The Niners lost Dallas Goedert multiple times last week, including two touchdowns.

red light

QB Brock Purdy ($29): While we admire Purdy’s talent and always respect offensive architect Kyle Shanahan, we can’t forget that just two weeks ago the Niners managed just 173 yards against this defense and now they have to play without alpha TE George Kittle.

Texans at Patriots

green light

RB Lamond Stevenson ($21): He’s only a dollar better than TreVeyon Henderson, and both backs should get double-digit opportunities here. But note that Stevenson has emerged as the team’s receiving back; over the past five games, Stevenson has been busy in the air (15-206-2), while Henderson has been an afterthought (4-31-0).

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yellow light

RB Woody Marks ($19): He had his best performance of the year in a win over the Chargers, but the Patriots offense has a much harder time with running back Milton Williams in the lineup. Marks should look for opportunities at 15-18 — the Texans don’t want to force C.J. Stroud into active passes — but his efficiency may drop this week.

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QB Derek Meyer ($32): His efficiency numbers have been stellar all year long, and Meyer has also provided handy production as a runner. But Houston’s offense is unlikely to force a high-scoring game, and we have to respect the Texans’ strong defense. Meyer will likely throw 30 passes or fewer on Sunday.

TE Dalton Schultz ($15): If star wide receiver Nico Collins – who is recovering from concussion treatment – is in place as expected, Schultz has a legitimate path to becoming Houston’s busiest target. I expect him to have no trouble chasing 50 yards and have about a 35% chance of a touchdown. Those may sound like modest expectations, but they’re playing tight end.

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red light

Quarterback C.J. Stroud ($22): You might be tempted to play a value play at quarterback heading into Sunday’s game, but Stroud’s ceiling doesn’t look that big, especially if Collins can’t go. Josh Allen is the only quarterback with multiple touchdowns in a Patriots game since Week 11.

rams vs. bears

green light

Quarterback Matthew Stafford ($35): He’s the most expensive quarterback on Sunday’s roster, even though he’s only $3 more than Drake Maye and $4 more than Caleb Williams. The Bears’ pass defense is the worst in the playoffs, with Stafford leading the way in touchdown passes (leading the game by 12) and passing yards.

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WR Davante Adams ($26): Apparently Puka Nacua is a god, but his salary is $38. Adams will likely hold more touchdowns and a $12 discount. The Rams have one of the tightest passing trees in the league — 31 of Stafford’s 42 targets last week went to Nacua and Adams.

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TE Colston Loveland ($20): You have to pay expected salary now, but Loveland has earned that right with a strong performance over the last three games (24-320-2). The Bears have allowed 38 targets to Loveland during this stretch, and Los Angeles’ seam coverage has been average all year.

red light

WR Luther Burden III ($15): Although he scored seven goals in a dramatic comeback against Green Bay, he didn’t take advantage of the opportunity (3-42-0). Burden is still making rookie mistakes — there were some crossovers last week — and while he’s been strong at times this year, he still only has two touchdowns this season.

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TE Colby Parkinson ($18): He’s been one of my favorite sleepers in recent weeks, but he’s no longer considered an overlooked player. The Rams’ tight ends are getting healthier, which means it should be a platoon on Sunday night. Parkinson has a touchdown rate, but his target ceiling is limited.

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