Each week during the 2025-26 NBA season, we’ll take a deeper look at some of the league’s biggest storylines, trying to determine whether future trends are based more on fact or fiction.
Last time: The Golden State Warriors are ripe
Fact or fiction: Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets would be good
The best player in the NBA, Nikola Jokić, was injured, and he rarely is.
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The knock-on effects of hyperextending his left knee will keep him out for at least four weeks this season. With the NBA requiring players to play 65 games to be eligible for postseason awards, Jokic’s desire to become the sixth player to win four MVPs, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain, may be on hold for another year.
(The 65-game rule itself seems ridiculous, since Jokic and Victor Wembunyama — once favorites for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, respectively — may no longer be in the conversation for either honor before midseason. The media is perfectly capable of weighing the full scope of a player’s candidacy, including time missed, without an arbitrary cutoff.)
Here, though, we’re more concerned with Jokic’s Denver Nuggets and what this injury means for them.
After all, the Nuggets, when healthy, or healthier (we’ll get into their additional injury woes), look as good, if not better, than the team that will win the 2023 NBA championship. Of course deeper. With Jokic’s presence, they feel like the Oklahoma City Thunder’s biggest threat in the seven-game series, even though Wembanya’s San Antonio Spurs have beaten the defending champions three times in two weeks.
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As we speak, the Nuggets sit in third place in the Western Conference with a 23-10 record and don’t have to face the Thunder until the Western Conference Finals. What they want to achieve and what we expect them to achieve is right.
It’s a big deal, too, because Jokic is still on pace for 56 wins without three starters in Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun, who are all on the injury report. That’s right: Jamal Murray was expected to make his first All-Star appearance, but he’s now the team’s only healthy starter.
Led by newly acquired Jonas Valanciunas to replace Jokic and homegrown talents Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones and Jalen Pickett, Murray led the Nuggets to a 106-103 win over the Toronto Raptors in their first game without their offensive core. Denver head coach David Adelman was clearly pleased with his team’s performance, knowing how difficult it is to win Not at all No Jokic.
“It happens every night,” he said. “We have to find a way to get into the fourth quarter.”
It’s not easy. This season with Jokic on the bench, the Nuggets are outscored by 5.3 points per 100 possessions and have a record of 26 wins. In a relatively small sample size and without Jokic, Gordon, Johnson and Braun, the Nuggets scored 19.8 points per 100 meaningful possessions, worse than even the last-place Washington Wizards, according to Cleaning the Glass.
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On the bright side, Denver has the league’s easiest January schedule, with 11 games against likely lottery teams, including two games against the Wizards and Brooklyn Nets.
However, the Nuggets are also now without Valanciunas, who will also be out for at least four weeks due to a strained right calf he suffered in the win over Toronto. That leaves DaRon Holmes as the team’s only healthy center, with the 2024 draft pick having played a total of 34 minutes in his NBA career. This is bad.
[Get more Nuggets news: Denver team feed]
How bad is the problem. The Nuggets are just three games ahead of the sixth-place Minnesota Timberwolves in losses. Any less than that and Denver would be in danger of losing its playoff seeding. The seventh-place Phoenix Suns are just four games behind the Nuggets.
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Denver will likely slip down the standings. If they go 4-13 in January (well within the realm of possibility), the Suns would only need to hit .500 to catch them.
But remember, Jokic will be back, as will Gordon, Johnson, Braun and Valanciunas — all of whom will presumably be back before the All-Star break, which will give the Nuggets two months to get back into title contention. They should still be on a 56-win pace, if not better, and settle around 50 wins, which was a good run last year from a No. 3 seed to a No. 5 seed.
Worst-case scenario: The Nuggets drop to the fourth or fifth seed and have to face the Thunder in the second round, where they played seven games against Oklahoma City last season — despite dealing with similar injuries. Or worst-case scenario: They make the playoffs, where they have to win one of two games (anyone think they won’t?) and potentially face the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.
It’s also possible that the Nuggets could move back into the third seed. Or get the No. 6 seed.
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Are either situation really that bad? In all likelihood, they will face the Thunder anyway, so wouldn’t it be advantageous to play the Thunder earlier in the playoffs? Will the wear and tear on Jokic’s knees, Gordon’s hamstring, etc. not be that serious in the playoffs? We could either enjoy one of the greatest first-round series ever, or make it to the Western Conference Finals.
Regardless, the Nuggets aren’t done yet. They’re just on hiatus because without Jokic in the rotation, we’ll be less entertained watching League Pass. But we’ve seen enough: The Nuggets are capable of winning another championship, capable of beating the Thunder, and as long as Jokic stays healthy and has two months to build chemistry, they can still make progress in the playoffs, even on the road.
Who knows: Maybe the experience of Watson, Jones and Pickett and all the other role players who might be called upon in a playoff series will better prepare them for the moments that really matter.
Determination: Facts. The Nuggets will be fine.
