The third-seeded Georgia Bulldogs and sixth-seeded Lady Rebels are both just three wins away from being crowned the College Football Playoff national champions. Georgia and Mississippi have already met once this season, with the Dawgs winning 43-35 in Athens on the strength of a wild offensive day.
In Game 1, Georgia didn’t need to punt the entire game and totaled 510 yards of offense. Georgia’s problem is that the Bulldogs can’t stop Mississippi State quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has 305 yards and three touchdowns. Chambliss’ dual-threat ability hasn’t changed, but the Rebels will have to beat Georgia without coach Lane Kiffin after Kiffin committed to LSU a few weeks ago.
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Since the Ole Miss game, Georgia’s defense has tightened up a bit, not allowing an opponent to score more than 10 points in the past four games. Mississippi State’s defense has also improved, but the Rebels haven’t faced as many quality opponents as Georgia.
Who will win the Sugar Bowl? ESPN’s predictions
Detailed view before the Sugar Bowl trophy is presented after the game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Georgia is a touchdown favorite against Mississippi State. ESPN’s game predictions give Georgia a 60.1% chance of beating Mississippi State. The Rebels have a 39.9% chance of beating the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. If Mississippi State wins, it will be Georgia’s second consecutive Sugar Bowl loss in the playoff quarterfinals. Match prediction factors take into account team performance throughout the season, Football Power Index (FPI) and other important variables.
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Georgia National Championship Chance
According to FPI, Georgia has a 10.6 percent chance of winning the national championship (fourth nationally). Ole Miss has a 5.5% chance of winning the national championship (seventh nationally). Georgia has a 23.8% chance of advancing to the national championship game. If Georgia beats Mississippi State, the Bulldogs will play Ohio State, the FPI’s favorite team to win the national title.
Georgia Football 2025 Schedule
Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) looks to pass to Mississippi Rebels linebacker Taj Chambers
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Aug. 30: vs. Marshall (W, 45-7)
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Sept. 6: vs. Austin Peay (W, 28-6)
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Sept. 13: at Tennessee (West, 44-41 in overtime)
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Sept. 27: vs. Alabama (L, 24-21)
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Oct. 4: vs. Kentucky (women, 35-14)
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Oct. 11: Auburn (W, 20-10)
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Oct. 18: vs. Ole Miss (women, 43-35)
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Nov. 1: vs. Florida (women, 24-20)
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November 8: Miss State (W, 41-21)
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Nov. 15: vs. Texas (W, 35-10)
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Nov. 22: vs. Charlotte (W, 35-3)
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Nov. 28: vs. Georgia Tech (W, 16-9)
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Dec. 6 vs. Alabama (28-7 SEC Championship game)
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January 1, 8 pm ET, ESPN vs. Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl)
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This article originally appeared on UGA Wire: ESPN predicts whether Georgia football will win Sugar Bowl
