Thwaites Glacier, a giant ice shelf in Antarctica, has been given the ominous nickname of the “Doomsday Glacier” – because if it changes the course of its collapse, it could have profound consequences for future sea level rise and the fate of coastal communities.
Scientists watched in horror as its retreat accelerated significantly. Now, as detailed in a study published by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), wiredLarge cracks forming on the ice shelf are continuing to weaken its structural integrity. The end of the world has never been closer.
Scientists say if it collapses under its own weight, it could ultimately cause global sea levels to rise 11 feet, which would mean some devastation for tens of millions of people.
Now, a team of researchers from the University of Manitoba analyzed satellite data from 2002 to 2022 to observe how cracks in Thwaites Glacier continue to grow around the shear zone.
“Over the past two decades, the shelf has experienced progressive rupture around prominent shear zones upstream of its pinning points, progressively compromising its structural integrity,” the paper reads.
Over two decades, satellite images show that “total crevasse area length” has grown from about 100 miles to more than 200 miles, but the average length has actually declined, indicating significant new pressure on the glacier.
A similar alarming situation is occurring below the waterline. Another recent study looked at how warming ocean waters are melting ice shelves like Thwaites Glacier. The changes can be tracked not just over years but just hours and days, and the eddies of water swirling and digging beneath these glaciers can be up to six miles long.
The international team of researchers also discovered a worrying feedback loop: New cold water from the ice shelves mixes with warmer, saltier ocean water, causing ocean turbulence that melts more ice.
“This positive feedback loop is likely to intensify in a warming climate,” co-author Lia Siegelman, assistant professor at UC San Diego, told us CNN.
Scientists are still racing to fully understand the devastating effects of global warming on doomsday glaciers. One thing is for sure: the prognosis is not good. According to the ITGC’s 2025 report, glacier retreat has “accelerated significantly over the past 40 years.”
“Although a total collapse is unlikely in the coming decades, our results suggest that it will retreat further and faster in the 21st and 22nd centuries,” the report reads.
“Immediate and sustained climate change mitigation (decarbonization) offers the best hope for delaying ice loss and avoiding triggering a similar destabilizing retreat in the East Antarctic ocean region,” the group wrote.
More information about glaciers: The sound of dying glaciers may make you cry
