I know my prediction last week was bold, it was my biggest guess so far this year. Sometimes you have to go big or go home, and I learned that sometimes shooting that far can be risky. This week, I want to predict something that might seem bold but not too bold.
The Detroit Lions host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, and the Cowboys’ offense ranks second in the league, averaging 29.3 points per game. The Cowboys are 5-1-1 when they score more than 24 points. In the other five losses, they scored 14 points, 17 points, 20 points and 24 points (twice). The Lions are going to have to rely on defense if they want to win, and given their recent struggles, I think this week could be a return to where they were earlier in the year.
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Bold Prediction of the Week: Detroit holds Cowboys to under 24 points
I get it, it’s hard to trust the defense now after the Green Bay Packers scored 31 points and held the New York Giants to 27 last week, but that’s when things turned around. We’ve seen the Lions’ defense perform well, even in their most recent game against the Philadelphia Eagles, where they only allowed 16 points. The good news is that Detroit’s returning players or players coming off injuries now have more opportunities to play and can get back on the field more easily.
Cornerback DJ Reed returned against the Giants in Game 2, having averaged 53 snaps per game this season before getting injured. He took 31 shots against New York and increased that to 54 against Green Bay. Defensive tackle Aleem McNeil has played in six games this year, with his full workload starting in Week 11 against the Eagles. EDGE Marcus Davenport had 33 snaps in Week 1, which was reduced to 23 when he was injured in Week 2. He came back last week and played 23 snaps, and I expect that number to increase against Dallas.
Not only are the Lions’ injured players returning and should be on the field more, but this defense is holding its own when necessary. This season, the Lions are allowing 22.8 points per game, ranking 15th in the league. They are 5-1 when they hold their opponents to 24 points or fewer. Since Dallas is 1-5 when scoring 24 points or less, whether Detroit can win this game is key.
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Despite its recent struggles, Detroit’s PFF defensive rankings are good. They rank fourth in defense (79.9), third in run defense (81.1), second in rushing defense (73.3), fifth in pass rush (80.3) and eighth in defense (68.4). They have players such as EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, linebacker Jack Campbell, and safety Brian Branch on their roster to limit their opponents. This defense is too talented to give opposing offenses trouble, and I think defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard will once again make some adjustments to make sure things work in their favor and remain the same as they were at the beginning of the season.
The Cowboys’ offense is the reason they’ve won games recently, primarily through the air with quarterback Dak Prescott getting the ball to wide receivers George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. While the air attack is strong, the ground game needs some improvement, and I think that’s where the Detroit attack falls. The Cowboys’ PFF run grade of 72.3 is tied for seventh-lowest in the NFL. Despite the talent in the receiving corps, if the Lions defense can stop the run and force Dallas into an obvious passing situation, it will be their best chance to get off the field.
Both teams are currently fighting against the odds and cannot make any more mistakes. If the Lions can simply limit the Cowboys’ offense, based on how the Cowboys’ defense has performed this season (31st in points allowed, 28.5 points), the Lions should be among the best.
