Deputy Paul Montague, chairman of Education, Sport and Culture (ESC), said Guernsey schools were already adapting to falling pupil numbers and insisted standards in state primary schools would remain high.
To make more efficient use of staff, the number of reception classes in state schools has been reduced again to 20 this year.
Montague said the process was carefully managed to ensure a balanced distribution of students across the island’s primary schools.
“I want to say a huge thank you to all the officials who have managed to do this so that we are fairly evenly spread across these schools,” he said.
“It’s certainly not an easy thing to do and as parents know, this is a very important time in their child’s life.”
A former politician has described Guernsey’s decline in children and increasing class sizes as a “lose-lose situation”.
Although overall enrollments have fallen, class sizes are now broadly in line with what is typical in the UK. The average reception class size is around 24 pupils, with some variation between schools.
Montague dismissed concerns it could affect children’s learning. He emphasized that each course is supported by learning support assistants and experienced teaching staff.
He said: “We have a lot of very good reception teachers everywhere so we believe educational outcomes will still be very high.”
long term planning
These changes reflect broader demographic trends. The number of births in Guernsey in 2025 was 419, and this number is expected to trickle down to lower student numbers in the coming years.
Guernsey’s birth rate is experiencing an “alarming” drop, with 422 babies born in 2024.
The number of births in Guernsey has fallen by 33% in 10 years.
With a birth rate of 6.5 per 1,000 people, Guernsey is one of the lowest performers among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, higher only than South Korea.
Montague said falling student numbers required careful long-term planning for primary and secondary education.
A wider review of education services in Guernsey will be carried out next year.
“We’re going to see fewer kids,” he said. “It’s an educational issue for how we organize our heritage, but it’s also an issue for Guernsey more broadly.”
He added that the committee was taking a cautious approach to any future reforms, focusing on evidence and long-term sustainability rather than expediency.
“We don’t want to rush or make decisions that are only going to be right in five years. We have to be thoughtful,” he said.
Montague said while future declines in numbers were expected to affect secondary schools, the sector was currently stable after years of reform, with progress being made at all three high schools on the island.
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