By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is struggling to hold its ground as concerns about a stronger yen and fiscal instability create a divergence between the cryptocurrency and traditional safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin fell 0.8% in 24 hours to fall below $88,000, while ether fell more than 1.6% to just under $2,900. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 1.54%.
Meanwhile, the yen gained more than 1.4% against the dollar after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan would “take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal volatility.”
While Takaichi did not point to worrisome market moves, the country’s 10-year bond yield hit a 27-year high this month before falling slightly.
Traders also interpreted the New York Fed’s recent “rate review” as a sign of possible coordinated action with Japan, a situation that would push investors away from riskier assets as the yen carry trade unwinds.
Michael Burry, an investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the market (i.e. betting on a fall in stocks), recently pointed out that Japanese bond yields are narrowing the gap with global interest rates and commented that “repatriation of funds has yet to be solved.”
It is proposed to withdraw nearly $5 trillion in overseas investments, mainly in the United States, to capitalize on these gains. As a result, capital fled risk assets in anticipation of the move. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.8%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell.
However, this capital did not move to Bitcoin, but to gold. Earlier today, the precious metal surpassed $5,000 an ounce for the first time and is now at $5,090. Greg Cipolaro, global director of research at NYDIG, said Bitcoin’s always-on nature, deep liquidity and instant settlement may hinder its development.
“During times of stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference takes over, a dynamic that hurts Bitcoin far more than gold,” he wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.
Blockchain data also reveals internal weaknesses. CryptoQuant said in a report that older Bitcoin holders began selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023.
Traders will focus on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but guidance from Chairman Jerome Powell will be key.
In addition, U.S. government shutdown risk is currently at 79% on Polymarket and nearly 78% on Kalshi, adding another layer of uncertainty a week before major technology companies are set to announce earnings and stock price guidance. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- January 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. durable goods orders in November (previous value -2.2%)
- January 26, 10:30 am: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for January (previous value -10.9)
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Maple Finance is voting to extend the 25% protocol revenue distribution to the Syrup Strategic Fund in the first half of 2026. Voting ends on January 26th.
- Lido is voting to implement a dynamic DVT incentive model that adjusts reward distribution based on operating costs, as well as reforming the reward sharing committee to support Lido V3 features such as stVaults. Voting ends on January 26th.
- Unlock
- January 26: Unlocking 10.5% of its circulating supply, worth $508.2 million.
- Token issuance
- January 26: Rainbow (RBNW) airdrop snapshot will be released soon.
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is down 1.5% since 4pm ET on Friday to $87,928.03 (24 hours: -0.67%)
- ETH fell 1.5% to $2,897.28 (24 hours: -1.31%)
- CoinDesk 20 down 2.05% to 2,681.29 (24 hours: -1.34%%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR dropped by 2 basis points to 3.05%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is 0.0051% (annualized 5.5856%)
- DXY fell 0.92% to 97.46
- Gold futures rose 1.42% to $4,983.10
- Silver futures rose 7.15% to $103.26
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.79% at 52,885.25
- The Hang Seng Index closed unchanged at 26,765.52 points
- The FTSE was unchanged at 10,143.44
- The Stoxx Europe 50 index fell 0.13% to 5,948.20
- The Dow closed down 0.58% on Friday at 49,098.71 points
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,915.61 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.28% at 23,501.24 points
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.43% at 33,144.98 points
- The S&P 40 Latin America index closed up 1.5% at 3,591.57 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 2.8 basis points to 4.211%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.16% to 6,933.75
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures unchanged at 25,680.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.76% to 49,180.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 59.79% (-0.13%)
- Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio: 0.03294 (1.31%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 951 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $39.17
- Total fee: 1.93 BTC / $169,938
- CME Futures Open Interest: 124,740 BTC
- BTC in gold: 17.2 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 5.87%
technical analysis
- BTC faces strong resistance after closing weekly below $88,000 and rejecting the 50-week exponential moving average at $96,700
- Unless it recaptures $88,000, the market may transition into a consolidation range between $80,000 and $88,000 as this localized uncertainty impacts near-term volatility ahead of a broader breakout attempt.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $216.95 (-2.77%), closing at $212.06 pre-market -2.25%
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $71.33 (-0.03%), -2.29% at $69.70
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $31.90 (+3.17%), -2.51% at $31.10
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $35.75 (-2.00%), -0.73% at $35.49
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $10.50 (+2.04%), -2.10% at $10.28
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $17.28 (+1.17%), -1.79% at $16.97
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $18.79 (+3.93%), -1.33% at $18.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $13.71 (+3.94%), -2.26% at $13.40
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $49.14 (+4.71%), -1.59% at $48.36
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $14.99 (-4.83%)
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $163.11 (+1.32%), -2.33% at $159.31
- Strive (ASST): Closed at $0.87 (+0.06%), -1.78% at $0.85
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $9.75 (-0.31%), -2.56% at $9.50
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $2.00 (+1.01%), -4.50% at $1.91
- Lite Strategies (LITS): Closed at $1.27 (-3.79%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Net daily traffic: -$103.5 million
- Cumulative net flow: $56.48 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Traffic: -$41.7M
- Cumulative net flow: $12.33 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is about 6.02 million
Source: Farside Investors
when you are asleep
As Europe’s reliance on U.S. gas grows, so does Trump’s influence (New York Times): Tensions in Greenland have fueled concerns that the Trump administration could turn the U.S. oil and gas industry into a way to pressure Europe.
Dollar hits four-month low, gold tops $5,000 (Bloomberg): The dollar extended selling on Monday on speculation that the United States could intervene in coordination with Japanese authorities to support the yen. Stocks retreated and gold prices topped $5,000 an ounce.
India to cut auto tariffs to 40% in trade deal with EU, sources said (Reuters): India plans to cut tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40% from as much as 110%, the biggest opening of the country’s market so far, as the two sides could seal a free trade agreement as early as Tuesday.