Bitcoin has recently found support on a key on-chain metric (the average realized price in a given year), in this case the 2023 cost basis.
The current average realized price in 2023 is approximately $63,700. During the local bottom in early February, Bitcoin fell approximately 50% from its all-time high in October to approximately $60,000, with the price effectively testing and holding this level as support.
This behavior reflects the previous cycle. In early 2023, as the bull market began, Bitcoin experienced several minor corrections and used the realized price in 2023 as support many times. This scenario can be observed in March, July, and September 2023, when the price consolidated in the range of $20,000 to $26,000.
Looking at the newer cohort, the average realized price in 2026 started the year at nearly $90,000 and has since dropped to around $77,000. Bitcoin is currently trading at just over $70,000, with the average buyer in 2026 underwater. Notably, the cost basis for this cohort is also lower than the $81,500 for the 2024 cohort and $96,400 for the 2025 cohort.
Narrowing things down further, the total realized price (which represents the average cost basis of all coins in circulation) is currently around $54,360. Historically, Bitcoin has traded below this level in every major bear market, including 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022.
Bitcoin’s lowest price so far this cycle is around $60,000. Should this level fail, it would become the next key support level to watch, with $54,000 achieving as a deeper all-time bottom.