Introduction
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Some weather models are hinting at a severe snowstorm in the New York area this weekend.
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The National Weather Service says snow is most likely Saturday night into Sunday.
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“This guy is probably going to be one of the overachievers,” New York Fox 5 Mike Woods said.
new york city – Forecast models showing a major snowstorm in the New York City area this weekend have been circulating on social media, and confidence in an impactful winter storm this weekend is “growing,” according to the National Weather Service.
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But in reality, this is just a model. Meanwhile, another model shows snow, but in a lighter form.
What is the European model saying?
European forecast model. (Fox Weather)
European models show heavy snow covering much of the center and east of the country, including the New York City area.
What are American models saying?
US GFS forecast model. (Fox Weather)
The U.S. pattern is somewhat similar, but the New York City area is under a shade of blue, or has moderate snow potential.
What’s FOX 5 NY’s Mike Woods talking about?
what are they talking about
“This model is probably going to be one of the outperforming models. I mean, some of the models are providing up to a foot of snow in our southern areas,” Woods said.
Will we get snow this weekend?
timeline
The National Weather Service (NWS) says snow is most likely to fall Saturday night into Sunday:
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Saturday night: Chance of snow is 40%. Cloudy, with the lowest temperature around 14°C.
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Sunday: It may snow. It will be cloudy and cold, with the maximum temperature close to 20°C, and the probability of precipitation is 60%.
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Sunday night: Chance of snow is 40%. Cloudy, with the lowest temperature around 15 degrees.
How much snow is expected on Sunday?
local perspective
The winter storm will bring heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the United States before moving toward the East Coast by Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.
As of Tuesday morning, the National Weather Service believed there was a 40% chance that parts of New York City would experience “at least moderate winter impacts.” The city also has a 43% chance of 5 inches or more of snow this weekend.
Snow expected this weekend
what we don’t know
“Uncertainty remains regarding the location and intensity of the various components of this winter storm,” the National Weather Service said in a Facebook post.
As the week progresses, specific details about the timing, amount and extent of the impact will become clearer.
About the two models
Dig deeper
In the United States, the two most popular models you’ll see on social media are the Global Forecast System (GFS), commonly known as the “US model,” and the model run by ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), commonly known as the “European” model, or simply “Europe.”
Photo credit: fox weather
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operates GFS with support from several other U.S. research and government entities. ECMWF is based in the UK but is a private consortium supported by 34 European countries.
Government weather agencies run different models, but Euro and GFS are the two you’ll hear about most.
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