Bitcoin After a brief breakout attempt, the price fell back below $80,000 on Wednesday as on-chain data suggested the rally had come under profit-taking pressure.
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s 37% rebound from April lows still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed trend reversal, with realized profits reaching their highest levels since December and short-term holders increasingly taking profits.
Bitcoin’s rally has put traders back in the black, with holders cashing out at the fastest pace since December as recent buyers increasingly sell off, they wrote.
But according to CryptoQuant data, this rally still looks more like a relief rally than a true bull breakout, as profits are still well below the levels of past sustained uptrends, while unrealized gains are high enough to attract more selling. Traders’ unrealized margins were 18%, the highest level since June 2025 and a level where profit-taking has historically accelerated.
Singapore-based market maker Enflux offered a different interpretation, focusing less on holder behavior and more on the macro catalysts that drove Bitcoin higher in the first place.
Enflux said Bitcoin’s move above the $80,000 level was part of a broader risk reaction after President Donald Trump suspended U.S. Navy operations related to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a move that sent oil prices lower and boosted stocks.
But while Enflux said the rally “mechanically makes sense,” it warned markets may have overestimated the durability of the catalyst, noting that Trump’s diplomatic pauses since March have either been reversed within days or been misread by traders.
However, Glassnode offers a more constructive view, arguing that Bitcoin’s recent moves reflect an early structural recovery and not just a short-lived macro rally.
The analytics firm said in a report this week that Bitcoin has recovered two closely watched on-chain levels: the real market average at $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100. These levels are often the dividing line between weak and strong markets.
Glassnode identified around $85,200 as the next major resistance area, while noting that U.S. spot ETF inflows have improved and perpetual funds remain negative, suggesting some traders are still facing downside even as prices recover.
Still, Glassnode isn’t announcing a complete breakthrough.
Long-term holders are starting to realize profits, while rising realized losses across the market suggest Bitcoin still needs stronger spot demand to sustain a more sustained move higher.
Prediction markets have shown similar caution. On Polymarket, traders are giving relatively low odds that Bitcoin will break $85,000 or higher this week, suggesting the market remains hesitant to view the recent rally as confirming a breakout.