The Iran War premium is back, and cryptocurrencies are paying the price.
Bitcoin fell 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $75,633 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, down 3% for the week, while Brent crude rose 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel – its highest intraday level in four years – as Axios reported that President Donald Trump will receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The report added that U.S. Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles in the Middle East, which would mark the first time the U.S. military has used these weapons in combat. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war broke out in late February, hampering the flow of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products.
Such activity results in a war premium, which is the portion of an asset price that is driven by conflict risk rather than supply and demand fundamentals. Brent crude has had a strong year, with prices up more than 100% so far this year.
The global benchmark is now on a nine-day winning streak, its longest stretch since May 2022, and is up more than 100% so far this year.
Ethereum fell 3.4% to $2,244, down 4.4% for the week. XRP fell 2.1% to $1.37, down 3.7% in seven days. Solana fell 2.6% to $82.62. BNB fell 1.9% to $615. The only green letter among the top 10 external stablecoins is Dogecoin, which rose 3.8% on the day and 10.1% this week to $0.10.
Risk assets are giving back gains across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures erased an earlier 1.1% gain, driven by strong earnings from Alphabet and Amazon, while MSCI’s Asia-Pacific stock index fell 1.4% and European stocks opened down 1%.
The dollar rose and bonds fell as surging oil prices and a hawkish Federal Reserve dented demand for fixed income. According to Bloomberg, the 10-year government bond yield remained near its highest level since July, while Japan’s 10-year government bond hit its highest level since 1997.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the early stages of the war is being tested. Even as oil prices rose from $98 to $126 and the conflict entered its third month, the asset remained in a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 as of April. Each escalation of the title brings more serious losses, and the cumulative damage begins to show.
BTC is currently $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Any breakout above $80,000 would require the war premium to be lifted, Zoomex exchange director Fernando Lillo said in a note.
“Bitcoin is trying to break through the critical level of $80,000, which would require a resolution to the Middle East conflict, causing Brent crude oil prices to fall below $100 a barrel,” he said. “You can’t have one without the other, and the U.S. government’s plan for a long-term naval blockade of Iran is becoming a real obstacle.”
Lillo pointed to a possible scenario in which the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days, viewing it as a response to “aggressive steps taken by Iran” to orchestrate relief rallies.
“The potential lifting of restrictions in the region and falling oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and head towards $85,000.”
