Bitcoin was on track to post its fourth straight monthly decline, a rare decline since 2018-2019, when the market posted six straight monthly declines. There is still one full trading week left in January, but Bitcoin is down slightly for the month, hovering around $87,000.
The asset posted negative monthly closes in October, November and December, marking a sharp pullback from October’s all-time highs. From peak to trough, Bitcoin fell approximately 36% during this period.
Notably, even the 2022 bear market, in which Bitcoin plummeted from $69,000 to $15,000 amid quantitative tightening and the collapse of specific crypto industries, did not produce more than three consecutive months of negative values. This historical comparison highlights how unusual the current streak would be if January also closed lower.
short term optimism
Despite weakness in spot prices, derivatives markets are showing some tentative optimism. Options positioning suggests modest upside interest at the end of the month, according to Deribit data.
Bitcoin options are set to expire on January 30, and total open interest on Deribit is expected to be approximately $8.5 billion. The $100,000 call option has the highest notional value at nearly $900 million, indicating that a large number of traders are ready for a rebound to six-digit levels. The maximum pain price for this expiry is close to $90,000. Maximum pain is the price level at which the greatest number of options contracts expire worthless, which can create a gravitational pull toward that level as expiration approaches.
