Someone bought $2.1 billion in Bitcoin through ETFs. Others are using this bid to exit.
According to data from SoSoValue, as of April 23, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has had inflows totaling $2.1 billion for eight consecutive days. This is Bitcoin’s longest winning streak since October 2025, when it rose for nine consecutive days to an all-time high of $126,000. April 23 alone brought in $223.21 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing roughly 75% at $167.49 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC was a meaningful outflow at $16.93 million.
Bitcoin has climbed from $68,000 to $77,000, a gain of 12%, almost perfectly coinciding with the return of ETF bids. Since its launch, ETF’s cumulative net inflow has reached US$58 billion, with total assets reaching US$102 billion, accounting for 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market value.
But this is what the ETF data doesn’t account for.
A Glassnode report earlier this week revealed that Bitcoin has just regained its true market average of $78,100, which tracks the average cost basis of actively traded supply. This is the first time since mid-January that this level has been restored and historically marks a transition from bear market conditions to more constructive conditions.
The problem is next level. The short-term holder cost basis is $80,100, which is the average entry price for anyone buying over the past 155 days. Above this level, more than 54% of recent buyers would have made a profit.
In every previous example this cycle, this threshold has coincided with a local top forming as short-term holders used the bounce to break even and exit. This was the second time the structure was built and the first time it collapsed.
Profits realized by short-term holders have soared to $4.4 million per hour, according to Glassnode. The $1.5 million threshold has topped all local top prizes so far this year. The current reading is three times that number.
The settings here are specific. Funding for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. Saturday’s short squeeze briefly pushed Bitcoin to $78,000 before a Hormuz reversal pulled it back.
The second squeeze, combined with ETF bids and Glassnode flagging offshore venue spot demand recovering, is a clean path to $80,000. Whether this breakout is allocated to short-term holders or sold in the same manner as every local top product this cycle, it’s a trade.
March’s seven-day advance broke the local high in the same week. IBIT alone is responsible for the bulk of current issuance, while smaller issuers have issued a mix of funds. The structures are not the same, but the patterns rhyme.
ETF bids are real. The exit liquidity it provides short-term holders is also real. It will be interesting to see which side wins with $80,000.
