Bitcoin enters the final month of 2025 amid overwhelming fear. Many investors gave up because they couldn’t afford the mounting losses. However, the data suggests a major opportunity is emerging.
The Bitcoin capitulation indicator just reached a new all-time high. This development is significant in the current market context.
The Bitcoin capitulation indicator reflects the level of “pain” investors are experiencing.
The developers constructed this indicator using Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). CBD displays the total token supply based on the average purchase price per address. It also enables analysts to track changes in supply and investor sentiment over time.
When investors suffer significant losses, they tend to capitulate and sell their holdings en masse. These periods often coincide with the formation of local bottoms. They help identify potential reversal points where supply shifts from the “weak hand” to the “strong hand.”
Historical data shows that this indicator’s peaks (marked in red on the chart) typically coincide with price bottoms (marked in black). This pattern emerged in Q3 2024 and again in Q2 2025.
Recently, the capitulation indicator surged to all-time highs. Many analysts are paying close attention now. They expect Bitcoin’s price to see a strong reversal by the end of the year.
“The Bitcoin capitulation indicator just hit an all-time high! The last time this happened, the price surged 50%. Are you ready for the next ATH?” said analyst Vivek Sen.
Additionally, stablecoin market caps have begun to rise again after four consecutive weeks of declines. This new growth reinforces bullish expectations. Since stablecoins provide the market’s primary liquidity, this rally could be a sign that investors are ready to buy on dips.
One challenge with this indicator is the inability to determine the exact moment when a reversal occurs.
The capitulation indicator spiked twice in Q3 2024 before Bitcoin bottomed. It would also need three peaks in the second quarter of 2025 before the market reverses. If the indicator cools off now and spikes again, Bitcoin’s price could fall further.
In his latest analysis, legendary trader Peter Brandt suggests a price run from the $50,000 bottom to over $200,000.
“The history of Bitcoin bull cycles is a history of exponential decay. Whether you agree with it or not, you have to deal with it. If the current decline reaches $50,000, the next bull cycle should be $200,000 to $250,000.” – Brandt said.