By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
After Bitcoin, cryptocurrency markets become more volatile It fell 7% last week, its biggest drop in two months. However, there are still glimmers of hope in bullish derivatives bets that are currently cheap.
The decline pushed the price below a stable upward path – what technical analysts call a “bullish trendline” – that took the price on a step-up from $20,000 in early 2023 to a record $126,000 last October.
This pattern reinforces concerns raised by Bitcoin’s sharp pullback from all-time highs: We are already in a bear market (see TA section). So far, the subsequent decline has been mild. Bitcoin prices have rebounded from weekend lows around $86,000 to nearly $88,000.
Still, the overall picture looks bleak, with institutional interest in cryptocurrencies waning and charts showing bearish messages. SoSoValue data shows that spot ETFs listed in the United States last week saw a net outflow of US$1.33 billion, the largest net outflow in 11 months. On Monday, they made just $6.84 million.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at The FXPro, said in an email: “At times, speculators’ capital and attention seems to be focused solely on precious metals (mainly gold and silver), while cryptocurrencies have no power at all.”
Some observers believe money will flow back once the rally in gold and silver subsides. If you share a similarly bullish view, Bitcoin call options (derivatives contracts that offer huge upside potential at a small upfront cost) offer the best way to bet.
These calls look cheap because everyone is buying puts, which provides downside protection, said Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck.
“Downside protection is officially a crowded trade. While everyone pays a premium for puts, upside exposure [calls] The deal is cheap. If you have a rally thesis, the volume surface will provide a discount,” Siegel said.
In other news, BlackRock’s global fixed income chief investment officer Rick Rieder, who manages about $2.4 trillion in client funds and supports lower U.S. interest rates, has emerged as a contender to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chairman, whose term ends in May.
In traditional markets, both gold and silver are trading at all-time highs, while the U.S. dollar index is at its lowest level since September last year.
South Korea’s benchmark stock index Kospi continues to rise, with gains of 20% so far this year, building on last year’s strong 75% gain. This is important because, strangely, new highs on Kospi have triggered downside volatility in Bitcoin over the years. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- January 27: Weekly changes in U.S. ADP employment (previous value 8K)
- January 27: S&P/Case-Shiller house prices in the United States in November year-on-year (previous value 1.3%); month-on-month (previous value -0.3%)
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- January 27: Zebec Network, Dash, Houdini Swap and Cryptic attend X Spaces session on why privacy matters.
- January 27: Brave’s Brendan Eich, Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson and Mythigal Games’ John Linden attend the X Spaces conference.
- January 27th: PancakeSwap will host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session via the Venus Protocol.
- Unlock
- Token issuance
- January 27: Theo Network is expected to make an announcement, possibly related to the launch of thGOLD.
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is up 0.38% at $88,326.08 as of 4pm ET on Monday (24 hours: -0.18%)
- ETH rises 0.1% to $2,929.56 (24 hours: +0.22%)
- CoinDesk 20 down 0.58% to 2,683.47 (24 hours: +0.32%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR increased by 4 basis points to 2.85%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is 0.0074% (annualized 8.068%)
- DXY remains unchanged at 97.01
- Gold futures prices unchanged at $5,082.10
- Silver futures fell 2.82% to $112.25
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.85% at 53,333.54 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.35% to 27,126.95 points
- The FTSE rose 0.4% to 10,189.88
- The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.22% to 5,970.72
- The Dow closed up 0.64% on Monday at 49,412.40
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.50% at 6,950.23
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.43% at 23,601.36
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.16% at 33,093.32 points
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed up 0.36% at 3,604.49 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate rose 1 basis point to 4.221%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.25% to 6,999.00
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.56% to 25,994.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures unchanged at 49,518.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 59.67% (-0.07%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03307 (-0.28%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 921 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $39.22
- Total fee: 2.38 BTC / $208,632
- CME Futures Open Interest: 120,620 BTC
- BTC in gold: 17.2 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 5.87%
technical analysis
- This chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations starting in 2023.
- Prices fell more than 7% last week, with the big red candle piercing the trendline representing a step-up rise from 2023.
- The so-called crash confirmed the bears’ fears.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Monday’s pre-market close at $213.48 (-1.60%), up 0.76% to $215.10
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $70.90 (-0.60%), +0.56% at $71.30
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $31.28 (-1.94%), +0.38% at $31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $35.66 (-0.25%), +1.04% at $36.03
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $9.98 (-4.95%), +0.70% at $10.05
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $16.23 (-6.08%), +1.42% at $16.46
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $19.05 (+1.38%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $12.44 (-9.26%), +0.88% at $12.55
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $46.58 (-5.21%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $14.72 (-1.80%)
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $160.58 (-1.55%), +0.46% at $161.32
- Strive (ASST): Closed at $0.79 (-9.76%), +2.56% at $0.81
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $9.38 (-3.79%), unchanged pre-market
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $1.89 (-5.50%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.29 (+1.57%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Net daily traffic: $6.8 million
- Cumulative net flow: $56.48 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Net daily traffic: $117 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.45 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is about 6.02 million
Source: Farside Investors
