Ouch.
That’s how one of the most followed macro commentators on X, Holger Zschaeptiz, reacted after the 30-year Treasury (government bond) yield rose to 5% earlier today, hitting its highest level since July 2025. This level has only been tested twice in the past two decades.
His reaction also summed up the sentiment of several cryptocurrency analysts, who see rising yields as a headwind for Bitcoin the world’s largest cryptocurrency and macro asset by market capitalization.
“The situation is simple at the moment. As long as yields remain attractive and [Fed’s monetary policy] Money remains tight, and capital has real alternatives to risk. This will continue to put pressure on assets like cryptocurrencies, depending on liquidity and momentum, sFOX chief commercial officer Diana Pires said in an email to CoinDesk. sFOX is a San Francisco-based leading cryptocurrency dealer and trading platform designed for institutional investors, hedge funds, and corporations.
Bitcoin has come under pressure as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rises. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $75,670, down 2% in 24 hours, with DXY hovering above 99, looking to extend Wednesday’s 0.5% gains.
This is why rising bond yields typically hurt Bitcoin and other risky assets. When the U.S. government needs to borrow money, it issues bonds, and the yield on these bonds is the return that bond investors receive each year. So when yields rise, bonds become more attractive. The 30-year Treasury bond yields 5%, an almost risk-free return.
Therefore, every dollar in Bitcoin cannot earn a 5% yield. This trade-off often results in a shift of capital away from non-yielding risk assets such as Bitcoin and other risky assets such as technology stocks. Rising yields also typically weigh on gold, which fell more than 1% to a one-month low of $4,540 on Wednesday and last changed hands near $4,564.
“Treasury yields rise and dollar strengthens [have] “Historically, tighter financial conditions have put pressure on cryptocurrency valuations,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus Exchange, which is registered with India’s Financial Intelligence Unit.
Note that the 30-year Treasury yield isn’t the only bond rising. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, also rose. Together, they point to financial tightness, where borrowing costs are high and inhibit risk-taking in financial markets and the economy.
Bond yields are also rising in the UK and elsewhere around the world.
Fed dissidents oppose easing
As expected, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Unexpectedly, there was internal dissent. Three of the 12 voting officials objected to the loose language in the statement, a development that caught markets off guard.
This has boosted expectations for higher long-term interest rates, which is also reflected in bond yields.
Matt Mena, senior cryptocurrency research strategist at 21shares, said in an email: “The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady is not shocking, but the three opponents calling for a strike against any easing guidance is a heavy blow to key parties in the market. This is a classic hawkish signal, and Bitcoin has been feeling this since Bitcoin is usually a risk indicator.”
ING described the so-called hawkish dissent from the three officials as a warning aimed at incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s pick to succeed outgoing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. “They may want to make it clear that they will not readily accept his idea that interest rates can be lowered in time,” ING analysts said.
Interestingly, Wednesday’s policy statement did not explicitly lean toward easing, reinforcing the message that the Fed is in no rush to pivot.
Rising oil prices are raising inflation expectations
The surge in bond yields isn’t just about the Fed. Earlier on Thursday, oil prices soared to their highest levels since 2022, with Brent briefly topping $125 a barrel after Trump considered extending a blockade of Iranian ports. In addition, oil prices have been rising since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, mainly hovering between $80 and $120.
As a result, as CoinDesk noted earlier this week, energy prices at the pump are surging, pushing up long-term inflation expectations.
All of this is pushing yields higher.
“Inflation is not convincingly back on target and the Fed is not signaling a near-term shift. Markets may want a clear cut, but the Fed is not backing down yet. Until that changes, flows will continue to favor yield and safety over volatility. For cryptocurrencies, this means the macro backdrop remains a headwind, not a tailwind,” Pires said.
