Bitcoin Bitcoin fell 3% in early Asian trading, holding near $77,000, as markets braced for a week filled with macro catalysts. The move appeared to be more out of caution than a shift in sentiment.
Singapore-based market maker Enflux said in a note to CoinDesk that traders were reluctant to push Bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s interest rate decision and a slew of data due later this week, including GDP, PCE inflation and the employment cost index. Taken together, the print will affect expectations for when or if the Fed can begin cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.
Currently, the biggest constraint is oil. Brent crude remains above $100, complicating the outlook for inflation and raising the bar for a dovish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
According to Enflux, markets operate under two competing assumptions: geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution won’t come fast enough to influence near-term policy. This combination effectively rules out a rate cut in June (Polymarket bettors give a 95% chance of “no change”) and creates a murkier backdrop for risk assets.
In this environment, Bitcoin has struggled to break through key technical levels. The cryptocurrency is trading approximately 4% below its short-term holding cost basis of nearly $80,700, a level often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction.
Decisively moving above that level would likely require the Fed to send a clear signal that oil-driven inflation will be temporary. In the absence of this, Enflux expects Bitcoin to trade preliminarily ahead of Thursday’s data release, with sharper moves more likely related to the macro data rather than the Fed statement itself.
Looking beyond this week, a less obvious force may also be influencing Bitcoin’s next move. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that OpenAI missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of demand for artificial intelligence.
Publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies have taken on huge debts while also selling off some of their funds to pivot to hosting artificial intelligence data centers – an investment considered more profitable than mining.
In theory, a slowdown in this shift could lead to slower sales.
When computing demand is strong, miners have the incentive and funds to keep building, often resulting in continued sales of Bitcoin to fund capital expenditures and debt repayments.
But if OpenAI’s failure indicates that the growth of artificial intelligence may not be able to keep up with these expectations, then the situation becomes more complicated. Over time, a slowdown in AI expansion could mitigate miner-driven selling, eliminating sources of supply.
The problem is timing: Selling pressure on semiconductor and data stocks could drag down the cryptocurrency market amid weak tech and risk appetite, while relief from slower miner selling will come later.
In this sense, the AI ​​story only reinforces Enflux’s broader point. The market is caught between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand will add another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the issues that matter most to price.
For now, this leaves Bitcoin trading within the same narrow band, awaiting clearer signals.
