Bitcoin’s “realized capitalization” reached an all-time high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that Bitcoin is still in a bull market despite a nearly 40% price plunge over the past 10 weeks.
This on-chain metric values each Bitcoin at its last moved price, emphasizing actual capital inflows rather than speculative price action like total market cap.
Glassnode data shows that despite recent stalling in the $1.125 trillion area, realized caps continue to rise after a 36% correction from October’s all-time high price. There was a similar pause during the tariff scare in April 2025, when Bitcoin bottomed near $76,000 before reaching new highs.
During the 2022 bear market, the realized cap fell from approximately $470 billion to $385 billion as investors capitulated and tokens sold at a lower cost basis – a reaction we have yet to see.
Four-year cycle narrative questioned
Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that Bitcoin may break the four-year cycle and experience an unexpected rise in 2026. Dragosch noted that strong global economic growth coupled with continued interest rate cuts, steepening yield curves, and expanding liquidity — all conditions that could weaken the U.S. dollar, which has historically supported Bitcoin.
“In my view, while there are no signs of a U.S. recession and no evidence that economic growth is reaccelerating, Bitcoin is priced seriously below the current macro backdrop to the extent that it was during the COVID-19 recession and the FTX collapse,” Dragosch said.
